水上交通风险分析方法国内外研究进展
Review on Maritime Transportation Risk Analysis Method

作者: 程磊 :中华人民共和国南通海事局,南通; 陈卓欧 :中华人民共和国天津海事局,天津; 张金奋 :武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉;

关键词: 水路运输事故风险分析Maritime Transportation Accident Risk Analysis

摘要:
水路运输在国民经济发展和国际贸易中发挥重要作用的同时,也存在着巨大的风险。如何有效提高水路运输的安全水平成为人们长期关注的焦点。本文对海事风险评估领域内的最新研究成果进行分类和评价,将当前的研究分为直接风险评估和间接风险评估方法。并对事故统计、综合安全评估、故障树和贝叶斯网络分析法,以及基于理论模型和仿真的风险分析方法的基本原理、研究现状、主要特点等方面作了较为全面的论述。最后对当前研究中存在的问题以及未来研究的方向作出了展望。

Abstract:
Maritime transportation plays an important role in national economic development and world trade. Meanwhile, it also has a great potential risk. It has been of great concern for a long time that how to enhance the safety and security of maritime transportation. The latest research in the filed of maritime risk assessment was classified and evaluated in this paper. The research was divided into direct and indirect risk assessment. The direct risk assessment method of accident statistic, Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs), and indirect risk assessment method of model-based and simulation- based are discussed in terms of basic principle, the latest study and characteristics. At last, the problems need to solve were discussed and also prospected the future research directions.

文章引用: 程磊 , 陈卓欧 , 张金奋 (2013) 水上交通风险分析方法国内外研究进展。 交通技术, 2, 123-127. doi: 10.12677/OJTT.2013.22022

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