年径流模拟方法比较研究
Comparison of Simulation Methods for Annual Streamflow

作者: 李帅 * , 熊立华 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;

关键词: 年径流模拟两参数月水量平衡模型多元线性回归方法Annual Streamflow Simulation Two-Parameter Monthly Water Balance Model Multiple Linear Regression Method

摘要: 基于两参数月水量平衡(TPMWB)模型的基本结构框架,本文设计了两种年径流模拟方法(TPMWB-1TPMWB-2)TPMWB-1方法以实测月降水量和蒸发量作为输入,通过TPMWB模型首先得到模拟月径流量,然后逐月累加得到模拟年径流量;而TPMWB-2方法以实测年降水量和蒸发量作为TPMWB模型输入,直接得到模拟年径流量。作为比较,多元线性回归(MLR)方法也被用于年径流模拟。在东江、赣江和汉江流域的52个子流域上对3种方法进行了年径流模拟。研究发现,3种方法均取得了令人满意的模拟效果。TPMWB-2方法在年径流模拟中的成功应用表明,TPMWB模型结构也适合直接用于年时间尺度的径流模拟,可在更多湿润或半湿润地区年径流模拟中推广应用。

Abstract: Based on the structure of two-parameter monthly water balance (TPMWB) model, two annual streamflow simulation methods, which were called as TPMWB-1 and TPMWB-2 respectively, were designed in this paper. For the TPMWB-1, observed monthly precipitation and potential evaportranspiration were taken as the inputs, monthly runoff was firstly simulated by using the TPMWB model, and the annual streamflow was subsequently calculated by the sum of the corresponding simulated monthly runoff. For the TPMWB-2, observed annual precipitation and potential evaportranspiration were taken as the inputs, and annual streamflow was then directly simulated. To provide a comparison with the simulation results of these two methods, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method was also used to estimate the annual streamflow. Finally, 52 sub-catchments in Dongjiang, Ganjiang and Hanjiang River Basins were chosen for comparison analysis of the runoff simulation results of 3 methods. The results show that all methods obtain good simulation results. From the successful application of TPMWB-2 methods it is concluded that the structure of TPMWB model is suitable and recommended to directly simulate the annual runoff in more humid and semi-humid regions.

文章引用: 李帅 , 熊立华 (2013) 年径流模拟方法比较研究。 水资源研究, 2, 114-120. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.22017

参考文献

[1] 乔西现, 蒋晓辉, 黄强, 等. 年径流预测的遗传模拟退火门限自回归模型[J]. 应用科学学报, 2006, 24(4): 424-428. QIAO Xixian, JIANG Xiaohui, HUANG Qiang, et al. Annual runoff prediction based on GA and simulated annealing. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2006, 24(4): 424-428. (in Chinese)

[2] 冯平, 丁志宏, 韩瑞光, 等. 基于EMD的降雨径流神经网络预测模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2009, 29(1): 152-158. FENG Ping, DING Zhihong, HAN Ruiguang, et al. Precipita-tion-runoff forecasting ANN model based on EMD. System Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(1): 152-158. (in Chi-nese)

[3] 李力, 沈冰, 李荣峰, 等. 水电站入库径流量的灰色自记忆预测方法研究[J]. 应用科学学报, 2007, 25(2): 198-201. LI Li, SHEN Bing, LI Rongfeng, et al. Gray self-memory of inflow to hydropower station reservoir. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2007, 25(2): 198-201. (in Chinese)

[4] 乔云峰, 夏军, 王晓红, 等. 投影寻踪法在径流还原计算中的应用研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2007, 26(1): 6-10. QIAO Yunfeng, XIA Jun, WANG Xiaohong, et al. Estimation of restoration of annual runoff series by using projection pursuit method. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2007, 26(1): 6-10. (in Chinese)

[5] 刘洪兰, 张俊国, 董安祥, 等. 张掖市水资源利用现状及未来趋势预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2008, 25(1): 35-40. LIU Honglan, ZHANG Junguo, DONG Anxiang, et al. Analysis on the actuality of water resources utilization and its future prediction in Zhangye City, Gansu Province. Arid Zone Research, 2008, 25(1): 35-40. (in Chinese)

[6] 夏军, 叶爱中, 乔云峰, 等. 黄河无定河流域分布式时变增益水文模型的应用研究[J]. 应用基础与工程科学学报, 2007, 15(4): 457-465. XIA Jun, YE Aizhong, QIAO Yunfeng, et al. An applied research on distributed time-variant gain hydrological model in Wuding River of Yellow River. Journal of Basic Science and Engineering, 2007, 15(4): 457-465. (in Chinese)

[7] ZHANG, L., POTTER, N., HICKEL, K., et al. Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko frame- work-model development and testing. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 360(1-4): 117-131.

[8] XIONG, L. H., GUO, S. L. A two-parameter monthly water balance model and its application. Journal of Hydrology, 1999, 216(1): 111-123.

[9] 熊立华, 郭生练, 付小平, 等. 两参数月水量平衡模型的研制及其应用[J]. 水科学进展, 1996, 7(增刊): 80-86. XIONG Lihua, GUO Shenglian, FU Xiaoping, et al. Two-pa- rameter monthly water balance model and its application. Ad-vances in Water Science, 1996, 7(Supple.): 80-86. (in Chi-nese)

[10] 李帅, 熊立华, 万民. 月水量平衡模型的比较研究[J]. 水文, 2011, 31(5): 35-41. LI Shuai, XIONG Lihua, WAN Min. Comparison of monthly water balance models. Journal of China Hydrology, 2011, 31(5): 35-41. (in Chinese)

[11] MYERS, R. H. Classical and modern regression with applications (2nd edition). Duxbury Press, California, 1990.

[12] 谢晓锋, 张文俊, 杨之廉. 微粒群算法综述[J]. 控制与决策, 2003, 18(2): 129-134. XIE Xiaofeng, ZHANG Wenjun and YANG Zhilian. Overview of particle swarm optimization. Control and Decision, 2003, 18(2): 129-134. (in Chinese)

分享
Top