﻿ 考虑系统元件故障不确定性的电压暂降盲数评估

# 考虑系统元件故障不确定性的电压暂降盲数评估Voltage Sag Evaluation Method Based on Blind Number Mod-el of Component Reliability Parameter

Abstract: The way to depict the uncertainty of components reliability parameters and voltage sag evaluation results has significant influence on the credibility of evaluation results and engineering application value. Based on the blind num-ber theory, this paper proposed a new method to depict components reliability parameters and voltage sag evaluation results. Introducing the blind number into depicting the multiple uncertainties of components reliability parameters, combining the advantage of the analytical method to assess voltage sag, this paper establish the model of evaluation voltage sag on the base of the blind number and research on the specific evaluation algorithm. Upon obtaining the possible interval of voltage sag frequency and the corresponding credible degree, this paper take the blind number ex-pectations of evaluation results as voltage sag frequency evaluation results. The proposed method had been applied to the IEEE-30 bus test system, the simulation results have shown that the evaluation results have high accuracy, including the advantage of deterministic method and interval number method, this method can not only give the possible interval results but also the corresponding credible degree, better satisfying the engineering applications.

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