气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测
Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Climate Variables in the Xiangjiang Basin

作者: 肖 义 * , 唐少华 :湖南省水利厅; 陈 华 * , 胡林娟 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;

关键词: 气候变化湘江统计降尺度气温降水蒸发Climate Change Xiangjiang Basin Statistical Downscaling Method Temperature Precipitation Evaporation

摘要: 通过收集和整理湘江流域历史水文气象资料,利用统计降尺度方法建立湘江流域气温、降水和蒸发等要素同全球气候模式大尺度因子的统计关系,分析和预测了未来湘江流域水文气象要素的变化情况。研究结果表明,未来2010~2099年湘江流域气温和蒸发有较明显的上升趋势,降水变化趋势不明显。

Abstract: Based on the collection of historical hydro-climate data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the Xiangjiang Basin, the relationship between the local hydro-climate variables and large scale climate predictors of GCM has been established by using Automated Statistical Downscaling model. The future change of those hydro-climate variables was predicted by using this technical frame during the period of 2010-2099 inthis basin. The results showed that temperature and evaporation will increase significantly, while precipitation has no significant change trend in future.

文章引用: 肖 义 , 唐少华 , 陈 华 , 胡林娟 (2013) 气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测。 水资源研究, 2, 70-75. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.21011

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