广东北江流域极端降水时空变化趋势分析
Analyzing the Spatial-Temporal Variation Trends in Extreme Precipitation in Beijiang River Basin of Guangdong Province

作者: 刘占明 * , 陈子燊 :中山大学水资源与环境系;

关键词: 北江流域极端降水时空变化趋势M-K滑动 检验小波分析Beijiang River Basin Extreme Precipitation Spatial-Temporal Variation Trend M-K Trend Test Moving t-Test Wavelet Analysis

摘要: 本文以广东北江流域18测站1965~2007年日降水数据为基础,选取6个极端降水指标,应用REOF方法对极端降水场进行分区,利用M-K方法进行变化趋势分析,应用变差系数对长期变化的稳定程度及相对变化特征进行分析,采用滑动检验法进行变异年份分析,应用Morlet小波分析振荡周期。结果表明:R1dR5dR95TCDD呈上升趋势,CWDR95p呈下降趋势;极端降水的长期变化具有较大的波动性,山区的波动性较平原地区更大;极端降水指数在20世纪90年代初期发生变异的现象较为普遍,显著周期尺度在1990年前后存在明显差异,这些都可能与该区20世纪90年代之后经济高速发展从而造成人类活动的影响较之前更加强烈有关。

Abstract: The paper selected 6 extreme precipitation indices base on the daily data of 18 stations in Beijiang River basin from 1965 to 2007. The River basin was divided into three different extreme precipitation spatial-temporal characteristic subareas by REOF method. The non-parametric method of Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to analysis variation trend. The change points of extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by the moving t-test method, the long-term changes in stability and relative variation were analyzed by variation coefficient, and the cycle characteristics were analyzed by the Morlet wavelet transform. Results show that, R1d, R5d, R95T and CDD were on the rise, while CWD and R95p declined; the change of extreme precipitation in long-term has large variability, and mountain area more than plain; the extreme indices were common mutation in the early 1990s, significant change cycle around 1990 scale difference, all of these may due to the high-speed economic development after 1990, and the influence of human activity more intense than before.

文章引用: 刘占明 , 陈子燊 (2012) 广东北江流域极端降水时空变化趋势分析。 水资源研究, 1, 239-244. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.14034

参考文献

[1] IPCC, PARRY, M. L., et al. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adap-tation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[2] IPCC. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 881.

[3] 姜付仁, 程晓陶, 向立云, 等. 美国20世纪洪水损失分析及中美90年代比较研究[J]. 水科学进展, 2003, 14(3): 384-388. JIANG Fu-ren, CHENG Xiao-tao, XIANG Li-yun, et al. Review on the flood losses of the 20th century in the United States and comparative study on flood damages between China and USA in 1990s. Advances in Water Science, 2003, 14(3): 384-388. (in Chinese)

[4] 杨金虎, 江志红, 王鹏祥, 等. 中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(1): 75-83. YANG Jin-hu, JIANG Zhi-hong, WANG Peng-xiang, et al. Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(1): 75-83. (in Chinese)

[5] ZHAI, P. M., ZHANG, X. B., WANG, H., et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(7): 1096-1108.

[6] 苏布达, GEMMER, M., 姜彤, 等. 1960~2005年长江流域降水极值概率分布特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(4): 208-213. SU Buda, GEMMER, M., JIANG Tong, et al. Probability distri-bution of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River basin during 1960-2005. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(4): 208-213. (in Chinese)

[7] 翟盘茂, 任福民, 张强. 中国降水极值变化趋势检验[J]. 气象学报, 1999, 57(2): 208-216. ZHAI Panmao, REN Fumin and ZHANG Qiang. Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1999, 57(2): 208-216. (in Chinese)

[8] 严中伟, 杨赤. 近几十年中国极端气候变化格局[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2000, 5(3): 267-272. YAN Zhongwei, YANG Chi. Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during 1951-1997. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2000, 5(3): 267-272. (in Chinese)

[9] 葛全胜, 王绍武, 方修琦. 气候变化研究中若干不确定性的认识问题[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(2): 191-203. GE Quan-sheng, WANG Shao-wu and FANG Xiu-qi. An uncer-tainty analysis of understanding on climate change. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(2): 191-203. (in Chinese)

[10] 李丽平, 章开美, 王超, 等. 近40年华南前汛期极端降水时空演变特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 443-450. LI Liping, ZHANG Kaimei, WANG Chao, et al. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation in the pre-flood period of South China in recent 40 years. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 443-450. (in Chinese)

[11] 陆虹, 何慧, 陈思蓉. 华南地区1961~2008年夏季极端降水频次的时空变化[J]. 生态学杂志, 2010, 29(6): 1213-1220. LU Hong, HE Hui and CHEN Si-rong. Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation frequency in summer over South China in 1961-2008. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2010, 29(6): 1213- 1220. (in Chinese)

[12] ZHENG Hong-xing, ZHANG Lu, LIU Chang-ming, et al. Changes in stream flow regime in headwater catchments of the Yellow River basin since the 1950s. Hydrological Processes, 2007, 21: 886-893.

[13] TORRENCE, C., COMPO, G. P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1): 61-78.

[14] YUE, S., WANG, C. Y. Applicability of pre-whitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resource Research, 2002, 38(6): 1068.

分享
Top