全球变暖对我国西北地区小麦生产的影响
The Impact of Global Warming on Wheat Yields in Northwest China

作者: 沈小波 :厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心; 曹芳萍 :北京林业大学经济管理学院;

关键词: 全球变暖小麦产量中国西北适应Global Warming Wheat Yields Northwest China Adaptation

摘要: 本文利用西北五省()1978~2007年小麦生产的投入产出数据和气候数据,研究了全球变暖对该地区小麦生产的影响。结果表明,年平均气温上升1%,小麦产量下降0.023%,而年降水量和年日照时数的变化对小麦生产没有显著影响。为了应对全球变暖对西北干旱地区粮食生产的负面影响,有必要从耕作实践、良种培育、土地利用、防灾减灾等方面探索有效的适应性措施。

Abstract:  

Using the input-output data of wheat production and climate data in five provinces of northwest Chinaduring 1978-2007, this paper studies the impact of global warming on the wheat yields in northwestChina. It concludes that the annual average temperature rises one percent, the wheat yields will reduce by 0.023%, while there is no significant impact of annual precipitation amount and annual sun-shining hours on wheat yields. In order to counter the impact of global warming on wheat production in northwestChina, it is necessary to explore the adaptive measures in farming practice, seed cultivation, use of arable land, and the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disaster.

文章引用: 沈小波 , 曹芳萍 (2012) 全球变暖对我国西北地区小麦生产的影响。 气候变化研究快报, 1, 51-58. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2012.12006

参考文献

[1] B. G. Drake, M. A. Gonzalez-Meler and S. P. Long. More efficient plants: A consequence of rising atmospheric CO2. Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biology, 1997, 48: 609-639.

[2] B. A. Kimball, K. Kobayashi and M. Bindi. Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Advances in Agron-omy, 2002, 77: 293-368.

[3] W. Cline. Global warming and agricul-ture: Impact estimates by country. Center for Global Development, Washington DC, 2007, 250 pages.

[4] G. Fischer, H. van Velthuizen, M. Shah and F. O. Nachtergaele. Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Methodology and results. Research Report RR-02-02, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2002.

[5] J. M. Antle. Methodological issue in assessing potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1996, 80(1): 67-85.

[6] R. M. Adams, B. H. Hurd, S. Lenhart and N. Leary. Effects of global climate chang on agriculture: An interpretive review. Climate Research, 1998, 11: 19-30.

[7] L. Z. You, M. W. Rosegrant, S. Wood and D. S. Sun. Im-pact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009, 149(6-7): 1009- 1014.

[8] S. B. Peng, J. L. Huang, J. E. Sheehy, R. C. Laza, R. M. Visperas, X. H. Zhong, G. S. Centeno, G. S. Khush and K. G. Cassman. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of National Academies of Science of the USA, 2004, 101(27): 9971-9975.

[9] D. Lobell, G. Asner. Climate and manage-ment contribution to re- cent trends in US agricultural yields. Science, 2003, 299(5609): 1032.

[10] C. A. Carter, B. Zhang. The weather factor and variability in China’s grain supply. Journal of Comparative Economics, 1998, 26(3): 529-543.

分享
Top