﻿ 改进的GLUE方法在水文模型不确定性分析中的应用

# 改进的GLUE方法在水文模型不确定性分析中的应用Application of the Modified Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Method to Hydrological Model Uncertainty Analysis

Abstract: The uncertainty analysis of hydrological models has received increasing attention of hydrological researchers. This paper applies a modified GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) methodology to estimate the prediction bounds of four hydrological models (namely, Xinanjiang model, SMAR model, SIMHYD model, and Tank model) on five sub-catchments in the Hanjiang river basin, respectively. Three indices (namely, containing ratio, average band width, and average asymmetry degree) are adopted to assess the prediction bounds obtained by the modified GLUE. The results show that the modified GLUE methodology can increase containing ratio and reduce average asymmetry degree of prediction bounds significantly.

[1] 卫晓婧, 熊立华. 改进的GLUE方法在水文模型不确定性研究中的应用[J]. 水利水电快报, 2008, 29(6): 23-25. WEI Xiao-jing, XIONG Li-hua. Application of the modified generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method to hydro-logical model uncertainty analysis. Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information, 2008, 29(6): 23-25. (in Chinese)

[2] 舒畅, 刘苏峡, 等. 新安江模型参数的不确定性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(2): 343-352. SHU Chang, LIU Su-xia, et al. Uncertainty analysis of Xinanjiang model parameter. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(2): 343- 352. (in Chinese)

[3] 卫晓婧, 熊立华, 等. 融合马尔科夫链–蒙特卡洛算法的改进通用似然不确定性估计方法在流域水文模型中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 2009, 40(4): 464-480. WEI Xiao-jing, XIONG Li-hua, et al. Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based modified generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation to hydrological models. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2009, 40(4): 464-480. (in Chinese)

[4] BEVEN, K. J., BINLEY, A. M. The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Pro- cesses, 1992, 6: 279-298.

[5] MONTANARI, A. Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the un- certainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Re- search, 2005, 41: 13.

[6] BEVEN, K. J. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 320(1-2): 18-36.

[7] PAPPENBERGER, F., BEVEN, K. J. Ignorance is bliss: Or se- ven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis. Water Resources Research, 2006, 42: 8.

[8] MONTANARI, A. What do we mean by uncertainty? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology. Hydrological Processes, 2007, 21: 841-845.

[9] XIONG, L., O’CONNOR, K. M. An empirical method to im- prove the prediction limits of the GLUE methodology in rain- fall-runoff modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 349(1-2): 115-124.

[10] HORNBERGER, G. M., SPEAR, R. C. Approach to the pre- liminary analysis of environmental systems. Journal of Envi- ronmental Management, 1981, 12: 7-18.

[11] 詹道江, 叶守泽. 工程水文学[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2000. ZHAN Dao-jiang, YE Shou-ze. Engineering hydrology. Beijing: China Water Power Press, 2000. (in Chinese)

[12] 王光生, 夏士谆. SMAR模型及其改进[J]. 水文, 1998, (增刊): 28-30. WANG Guang-sheng, XIA Shi-zhun. SMAR model and its modification. Journal of China Hydrology, 1998, (Supplement): 28-30. (in Chinese)

[13] 王国庆, 王军平, 等. SIMHYD模型在清涧河流域的应用[J]. 人民黄河, 2006, 28(3): 29-30. WANG Guo-qing, WANG Jun-ping, et al. Application of SIMHYD model in basin of Qingjian river. Yellow River, 2006, 28(3): 29-30. (in Chinese)

[14] 徐宗学, 等. 水文模型[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009. XU Zong-xue, et al. Hydrological Model. Beijing: Science Press, 2009. (in Chinese)

[15] XIONG L., WAN M., WEI X., et al. Indices for assessing the prediction bounds of hydrological models and application by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2009, 54(5): 852-871.

[16] 董磊华, 熊立华, 万民. 基于贝叶斯模型加权平均方法的水文模型不确定性分析[J]. 水利学报, 2011, 42(9): 1065-1074. DONG Lei-hua, XIONG Li-hua and WAN Min. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2011, 42(9): 1065-1074. (in Chinese)

Top