沁河流域汛期降水变化规律研究
Study on Variation Law of Precipitation in Flood Season in the Qinhe River Basin

作者: 王珍珍 , 黄领梅 * , 沈 冰 :西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;

关键词: 沁河流域汛期降水累计距平信噪比滑动平均小波分析Precipitation in Flood Season Accumulative Anomaly Signal to Noise Ratio Moving Average Wavelet Analysis

摘要: 利用沁河流域18个雨量站1971~2008年共38a汛期逐日降水资料,分别采用滑动平均法、累计距平、信噪比及小波分析等方法,研究了降水的趋势性及周期性变化。结果表明,38a来汛期降水量以7.89 mm/10a速率呈小幅的下降趋势;汛期降水不存在突变现象;年降水存在着27a22a6a9a的主周期变化,27a周期振荡最为强烈。经预测,沁河流域在2008年后的一段时期内可能处于一个降水偏少期。

Abstract: Based on daily precipitation in flood season dataset of 18 stations in the Qinhe River basin during 1971-2008, the trend and periodicity variation of precipitation in flood season were analyzed by using meth- ods of moving average, accumulative anomaly, ratio of signal to noise and wavelet analysis. The main results are as follows: the precipitation in flood season declined at a speed of 7.89 mm/10ain recent 38 years, but changes in amplitude are not significant; the precipitation in flood season doesn’t exist mutation phenomenon; the annual precipitation has 27, 22, 6 and 9 years periods, and the oscillation in 27 years were the most in- tense. The study forecast that the annual average precipitation in the Qinhe River basin maybe in the dry pe- riod after 2008.

文章引用: 王珍珍 , 黄领梅 , 沈 冰 (2012) 沁河流域汛期降水变化规律研究。 水资源研究, 1, 508-511. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16083

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