内蒙古多伦地区降雨量预报模型研究
Precipitation Prediction Model in the Duolun Area, Inner Mongolia

作者: 苏建伟 * , 沈 冰 , 贾 宪 :西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;

关键词: 年降雨量时间序列模拟预报ARMA模型Annual Rain-Fall Time Series Imitation Prediction ARMA Modal

摘要: 本文利用自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA)对多伦地区多年降雨量数据进行分析,进行时间序列模拟,建立了ARMA模型,验证了该模型在研究区的适用性,并用该模型对多伦地区未来2~3年的降雨量进行预测,并分析了该模型的利弊,为该区生产生活服务。

Abstract: We use the ARMA model to analyze rainfall data of Duolun, and use the established ARMA model to verify the applicability of the model and to predict the next 2 to 3 years rainfall in the Duolun region for the production and life.

文章引用: 苏建伟 , 沈 冰 , 贾 宪 (2012) 内蒙古多伦地区降雨量预报模型研究。 水资源研究, 1, 505-507. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16082

参考文献

[1] 李希国, 刘贤赵. 烟台地区降水量的ARIMA随机模型研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2006, 17(2): 58-60. LI Xiguo, LIU Xianzhao. Study on ARIMA stochastic model for precipitation in Yantai Region. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2006, 17(2): 58-60. (in Chinese)

[2] 王文圣, 丁晶, 金菊良. 随机水文学[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2008. WANG Wensheng, DING Jing and JING Juliang. Random hy-drology. Beijing: Hydropower and Electrical Press, 2008. (in Chinese)

[3] 王行建, 刘欣. ARMA时间序列模型的研究与应用[J]. 自动化技术与应用, 2008, 27(8): 65-66. WANG Xingjian, LIU Xin. Application of ARMA time series model. Techniques of Automation and Applications, 2008, 27(8): 65-66. (in Chinese)

[4] 唐玉娜, 李启会. ARMA模型在预测问题中的应用[J]. 嘉兴学院学报, 2006, 18(S1): 183-187. TANG Yuna, LI Qihui. Applicatian of ARMA model in fore- casting problems. Journal of Jiaxing University, 2006, 18(S1): 183-187. (in Chinese)

[5] 苏力. 时间序列分析预测法在降水预报中的应用[J]. 青海气象, 2006, 4: 12-14. SU Li. Time series analysis prediction method in the application of precipitation forecast. Journal of Qinghai Meteorology, 2006, 4: 12-14. (in Chinese)

[6] 王勇, 顾海燕, 徐文科. 基于ARMA模型的河川年径流量预测[J]. 哈尔滨商业大学学报, 2011, 27(3): 320-323. WANG Yong, GU Haiyan and XU Wenke. Prediction of annual runoff in river based on ARMA model. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce, 2011, 27(3): 320-323. (in Chinese)

[7] 安潇潇. ARMA相关模型及其应用[D]. 燕山大学, 2010. AN Xiaoxiao. The model about ARMA and its application. Yanshan University, 2010. (in Chinese)

分享
Top