﻿ 基于加权马尔可夫模型的径流预测研究

# 基于加权马尔可夫模型的径流预测研究Application of Weighted Markov Chain Model to Predict Runoff

Abstract: This paper tries to take the Fuzzy C-Means method (FCM) to classify runoff state of Markov chain model. Then aiming at the runoff characteristics of dependent random variables and taking order of autocor- relation coefficients as the weights, Markov chain model is used to predict the following year runoff state. The runoff state from 2001-2004 are predict based on the 54 years annual runoff data from 1950-2004 at Ji- mai gauging station located in Dari country, Qinghai Province, the results are consistent with the actual situa- tion. That means the application of Markov chain model with FCM to determine runoff state of Jimai gauging station is feasible and effective.

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