The Historical Context of the Rise of China and the Entry Point of the Transformation of the Development Pattern
作者: 蔡恒进 ：;
Abstract: The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States in 2007 has evolved into global game of sovereign currencies, and the appreciation of Chinese currency RMB has been one of the focuses. By analyzing the history of China since Qin Dynasty and the development history of western countries in the last five cen-turies, a new concept of self-assertiveness demand is introduced and a new theory of supply and demand in the process of income distributions is proposed. Self-assertiveness demands describe the demands originated from human cognitive tendency to confirm self value. Normally, people tend to give themselves higher than average evaluation within their scopes, and expect to receive more than they would be supplied, if possible. Therefore, the total self-assertiveness demands of a society tend to exceed the total current supplies. This gap is a challenge to any ruler or manager. To maintain a harmonious and stable society, the excessive demand has to be met with extra supplies. We propose four types of extra resource supplies in accordance with the challenge: learning and innovations, external acquisitions, overdraws from the future, and dynastic changes. It is the key to the rise and fall of nations that their citizens’ self-assertiveness demands are properly satisfied. China is now facing a chance of once-in-a-millennium, an intersection between Chinese two-millennium his- tory and the five-century global modernization. Three resource emergences, learning, trade surplus and re- starting from ruins, are taking place in China simultaneously. The abundant emerging resources are the driving force behind economic development, but failure to properly utilize the resources will lead to formation of economic bubbles, and the consequent bust of the bubbles will result in heavy losses of public wealth which in turn exerts permanent harms to sustainable development. It is, therefore, proposed to establish a people-oriented monetary system by creating and registering a society security personal account for every citizen and distributing the emerging resources to each account equally, and to make it the best entry point of the transformation of the development pattern of China.
文章引用: 蔡恒进 (2012) 中国崛起的历史定位与发展方式转变的切入点。 财富涌现与流转， 2， 1-6. doi: 10.12677/etw.2012.21001
 道格拉斯•诺思, 罗伯斯•托马斯. 西方世界的兴起[M]. 北京: 华夏出版社, 1999.
 约瑟夫•泰恩特. 复杂社会的崩溃[M]. 海口: 海南出版社, 2010.
 曼瑟•奥尔森. 国家的兴衰[M]. 上海: 上海世纪出版集团, 2009.
 D. Kahneman, A. Tversky. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2): 263-292.
 A. Tversky, D. Kahneman. Advances in prospect the-ory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4): 297-323.
 R. Thaler (Ed.). Advances in behavioral finance. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993.
 马歇尔. 朱志泰, 陈良璧, 译. 经济学原理[M]. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2009.
 蔡恒进. 构建新的货币制度是发展模式转变的根本之道[Z]. 增长与改革——国际金融危机下的亚洲新兴经济体. 北京: 中国经济出版社, 2009: 102.
 蔡恒进. 构建以人为本货币制度的探索[N]. 中国改革报, 2009, 5.
 蔡恒进, 曹晓丽, 黄政. 为全民建立社会保障个人账户——人民币升值红利的再分配[J]. 经济社会体制比较, 2008, 135: 91-95.