黑河上游径流量对未来气候变化的响应分析
Response of Runoff to Future Climate Change in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin

作者: 马彦军 , 李占玲 :中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院;

关键词: 黑河气候变化情景流量SWATHeihe River Climate Scenario Runoff SWAT

摘要: 当流域气候向暖湿或冷湿方向转变时,流域水资源量都将有所增加,且冷湿气候导致水资源量的增幅更大。不同气象要素对流域产流量的影响不同,降水对流域总的产流量影响较大,而气温对流量的时间分配影响较大。

Abstract: Understanding the changes of water resources in different climate scenarios for Heihe River Basin are of great importance due to its scare amount and its vital role in social sustainable development. Therefore, responses of runoff to future climate change in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin were mainly focused on by using SWAT model. Results showed that, when precipitation increased by 10% and 20% with no change in temperature, annual average runoff depth would increase 24% and 49%; when precipitation de-creased by 10% and 20%, annual average runoff depth would decrease 20% and 37%; when temperature in-creased 1°C and 2°C, whlie precipitation was stable, annual average runoff depth would decrease 6% and 11%; and when temperature decreased 1°C and 2°C, annual average runoff depth would increase 13% and 27%. When temperature and precipitation changed simultaneously, more complex conditions would occur. To sum up, if the climate in the study area changed to warm and arid, water resources would decrease; if the climate there changed to cold and arid, changes in water resources would depend on the decreasing degree of precipitation and temperature; if the climates changed to warm and humid or cold and humid, water resources would increase, and more increase in water resources would occur for cold and humid climate. Results also showed that, different meteorological variables affected water resources in different ways. Precipitation had great effects on total water yield, while temperature affected the temporal distribution of water yield in the basin.

文章引用: 马彦军 , 李占玲 (2012) 黑河上游径流量对未来气候变化的响应分析。 水资源研究, 1, 388-392. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.15060

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