# 基于部分概率权重矩的洪水频率参数估计方法Estimation of GEV Distribution Parameters Using Partial Probability Weighted Moments

Abstract: In order to reduce the uncertainty of the design flood estimation with larger return period, the prin-ciples and methods of Partial probability weighted moments (PPWM) were used to estimate parameters of Generalized extreme distribution (GEV). MATLAB programs were used to achieve the parameters’ numerical solution of the GEV from PPWM on the basis of previous studies. Monte Carlo experiments were performed to assess the statistical properties of parameters estimation of the GEV distribution by the method of PPWM from different lower bound censored samples. The research results indicate that the method of PPWM from lower bound censored samples still has good effectiveness in high quantile estimation.

[1] WANG, Q. J. Unbiased estimation of probability weighted mo- ments and partial probability weighted moments from systematic and historical flood information and their application to estimat- ing the GEV distribution. Journal of Hydrolody, 1990, 120(1-4): 115-124.

[2] 丁晶, 宋德敦. 概率权重矩法及其在P-III分布中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 1988, 3: 1-11.

[3] DING Jing, SONG Dedun. The application of probability weighted moments to estimating parameters for Pearson type-III distribu- tion. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1988, 3: 1-11. (in Chi- nese)

[4] 秦大庸, 孙济良. 概率权重矩法在指数Γ分布中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 1989, 11: 1-9.

[5] QIN Dayong, SUN Jiliang. The application of probability weighted moments to estimating parameters in exponential gamma distri- bution. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1989, 11: 1-9. (in Chi- nese)

[6] 丁晶, 杨荣富, 等. 概率权重矩法估计正态分布参数[J]. 成都科技大学学报, 1991, 6: 35-70.

[7] DING Jing, YANG Rongfu, et al. Estimating parameters of normal distribution by the method of probability weighted mo- ments. Journal of Chengdu University of Science and Technol- ogy, 1991, 6: 35-70. (in Chinese)

[8] 李松仕. 关于线性矩法与概率权矩法同解关系的分析研究[J]. 水文, 2004, 24(3): 30-32.

[9] LI Songshi. Study on the relation of same solution between L moments and PWM. Hydrology, 2004, 24(3): 30-32. (in Chi- nese)

[10] WANG, Q. J. Estimation of the GEV distribution from censored samples by method of partial probability weighted moments. Journal of Hydrolody, 1990, 120(1-4): 103-114.

[11] WANG, Q. J. Using partial probability weighted moments to fit the extreme value distributions to censored sample. Water Re- source Research, 1996, 32(6): 1767-1771.

[12] HOSKING, J. R. M., WALLIS, J. R. and WOOD, E. F. Estima- tion of the generalized extreme value distribution by the method of probability weighted moments. Technometrics, 1985, 27(3): 251-261.

Top