珠江口最高洪潮水位的变化规律研究
Research on Changes of Peak Water Level in the Pearl River Estuary

作者: 孔 兰 , 谢江松 :中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广州; 陈晓宏 :中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室(中山大学); 陈俊贤 :中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,河海大学水利水电工程学院; 高政毅 , 蒋任飞 :中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司;

关键词: 珠江口最高洪潮水位Mann-Kendall法海平面上升 Pearl River Estuary Peak Water Level Mann-Kendall Test Sea-Level Rise

摘要:

经济发达的珠江口地区,最高洪潮水位会给生活和建设带来严重破坏和重大损失。通过对代表站灯笼山站和横门站的最高洪潮水位系列进行综合分析,结果表明:1) 20世纪50年代以来珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位系列具有显著上升趋势;2) 珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位序列在20世纪90年代初期以来的上升属于突变现象,灯笼山站和横门站开始发生突变的开始时间分别约为1981年和1983年;3) 海平面上升对珠江口代表站最高洪潮水位变化趋势的影响大于最大流量的影响。

Higher peak water level of the Pearl River Estuary gives a great threat to life and construction losses in these developed areas. The peak water level series of the Denglongshan and Hengmen stations are analyzed by several methods. The results show that: 1) the peak water level has significant upward trend at representative station in the Pearl River Estuary since 1950s; 2) the increasing of the peak water level belongs to mutations phenomenon since early 1990s, the Denglongshan and Hengmen stations began to mutate re-spectively in 1981 and 1983; 3) the influence of sea level rise on change trend of the peak water level is greater than that of the maximum flow.

 

文章引用: 孔 兰 , 谢江松 , 陈晓宏 , 陈俊贤 , 高政毅 , 蒋任飞 (2012) 珠江口最高洪潮水位的变化规律研究。 水资源研究, 1, 315-319. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.15048

参考文献

[1] ICHIYANGL, K., YAMANAKA, M. D., MURAJI, Y., et al. Precipitation in N.Cpell between 1987 and 1996. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 15(2): 245-256.

[2] XIONG, L., GUO, S. Trend test and change-point detection for the annual discharge series of the Yangtze River at the Yichang hydrological station. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2004, 49(1): 99-112.

[3] CLAUDIA, L. Multivariate and partial Mann-Kendall test, 2002.
http://www.slu.se/PageFiles/70727/Manual.pdf

[4] 徐宗学, 张楠. 黄河流域近50年降水变化趋势分析[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(1): 27-35. XU Zongxue, ZHANG Nan. Yellow River precipitation trend in past 50 years. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(1): 27-35. (in Chi-nese)

[5] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007. WEI Fengying. The modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology. Beijing: Metrology Press, 2007. (in Chi- nese)

分享
Top