东江流域多尺度洪水序列变异分析
Analysis of Multi-Scale Flood Series Alteration in the East River Basin

作者: 谢静红 , 谢平 * , 许斌 , 李析男 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;

关键词: 东江流域洪水序列变异分析物理成因East River Basin Flood Series Alteration Analysis Physical Causes

摘要: 由于气候变化和人类活动的影响,东江流域的洪水序列可能产生了变异。为了揭示多尺度洪水序列时空变异规律,利用水文变异诊断系统对东江流域主河道的龙川、河源、岭下、博罗4个控制站的年最大一、三、五、七日洪水序列进行变异诊断。结合东江流域内降雨序列的变异情况、水利工程设施等气候和人类活动影响因素的分析,揭示了洪水变异的物理成因。结果表明:龙川、河源、岭下、博罗各站的年最大一、三、五、七日洪水序列均发生了不同程度的变异。通过对各洪水序列的空间变异关系分析,发现对于不同洪水序列,各站之间的联系密切程度不同。物理成因分析表明:东江流域洪水变异主要是受梯级水电站修建的影响,受气候变化影响较小。

Abstract: Under the influence of climate change and human activities, alterations may happen to the distri-bution regulations and parameters of flood series in the East River basin. In order to uncover the multi-scale flood series alterations on temporal and spatial scales, annual maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day and 7-day floods of the Longchuan, Heyuan, Lingxia and Bolo stations in the East River basin were chosen, then the hydro-logical alteration diagnosis system was used to analyze the alteration. Combining with the analysis of the in-fluence of climate change and human activities such as the alteration of precipitation series and water con-servancy facilities in the East River basin, the physical causes of flood alteration are mainly due to the cas-cade hydropower plants. Results indicate that the variation degree of annual maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day and 7-day floods at the Longchuan, Heyuan, Lingxia, and Bolo stations are different. It is shown that the re-lationship between stations is different and the influence of climate change is very little.

文章引用: 谢静红 , 谢平 , 许斌 , 李析男 (2012) 东江流域多尺度洪水序列变异分析。 水资源研究, 1, 370-374. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.15057

参考文献

[1] 谢平, 陈广才, 雷红富, 等. 水文变异诊断系统[J]. 水力发电学报, 2010, 29(1): 85-91.

[2] XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai, LEI Hongfu, et al. Hydrological al- teration diagnosis system. Journal of Hy-droelectric Engineering, 2010, 29(1): 85-91. (in Chinese)

[3] 韩瑞光, 冯平. 流域下垫面变化对洪水径流影响的研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010, 24(8): 27-30.

[4] HAN Ruiguang, FENG Ping. Effects of sublayer and land-cover change on flood in Daqinghe River Basin. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010, 24(8): 27-30. (in Chinese)

[5] 许晓艳, 鄢信, 崔玉乙, 等. 浑河流域水利工程对洪水极值的影响[J]. 东北水利水电, 2012, 4: 47-48.

[6] XU Xiaoyan, YAN Xin, CUI Yuyi, et al. The influence of the water conservancy project in Hun He basin to the extreme flood. Northeast Water Conservancy and Hydropower, 2012, 4: 47-48. (in Chinese)

[7] 李兴拼, 郑江丽, 贺新春, 等. 东江流域水文变异及其对生态环境的影响[J]. 人民珠江, 2011, 5: 32-34.

[8] LI Xingping, ZHENG Jiangli, HE Xinchun, et al. The hydrologic alternation along the East River Basin and the influence of the ecological environment. Pearl River, 2011, 5: 32-34. (in Chinese)

[9] 杨涛, 陈永勤, 陈喜, 等. 复杂环境下华南东江中上游流域筑坝导致的水文变异[J]. 湖泊科学, 2009, 21(l): 135-142. YANG Tao, CHEN Yongqin, CHEN Xi, et al. Evaluating hydrologic alternation along the East River Basin, southern China, under the Changing environment. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2009, 21(1): 135-142. (in Chinese)

[10] 董满宇, 江源, 李俞萍, 等. 近46年来东江流域降水变化趋势的气候分析[J]. 水文, 2010, 30(5): 85-90. DONG Manyu, JIANG Yuan, LI Yuping, et al. Analysis of pre- cipitation change trend over last 46 years in Dongjiang River Basin. Journal of China Hydrology, 2010, 30(5): 85-90. (in Chi- nese)

分享
Top