气候变化的水文水资源效应研究进展
Review on the Impact of Climate Change on Features of Hydrology and Water Resources

作者: 陈晓宏 * , 房春艳 , 张 云 :中山大学,水资源与环境研究中心;

关键词: 气候变化水文水资源影响评价水文模型综述Climate Change Impact Water Resources Approaches Review

摘要: 气候变化对水循环及其伴生过程的影响日趋明显,所引起的水文水资源效应已成为全球普遍关注的科学、经济、社会、政治和环境问题。针对该问题,从水文要素时空变化趋势分析、气候变化情景下水文要素影响模型模拟、敏感性和脆弱性、不确定性、对水安全综合影响(含极端水文事件)及适应性对策等方面对研究内容进行了回顾,综述了研究所采用的统计分析、成因分析、情景假设及降尺度、模型模拟、多模型耦合等方法和技术,并指出了存在的问题。最后提出数据监测体系建设、尺度降解技术、双向耦合模型、对水循环全过程及水安全综合影响评价、人类活动与气候变化影响的识别和贡献分解、无资料地区影响评价、涉水工程影响风险评价、适应性对策效益分析等研究,将是该领域未来研究重点。

Abstract: Climate change causes significant variation of hydrological and water resources system. A lot of achievements have been found in the research of responses of water resources to climate change in recent years. This paper aims to review the researches of impact of climate change on water resources and hydrology in two aspects, contents and approaches. The impacts covered in this paper include 1) responses of hydrological system to climate change, 2) impact of climate change on vulnerability and management of water resources systems, and 3) extreme hydrological events as flood and drought caused by climate change. Approaches for revealing the effects of climate change on water resources and hydrology are also discussed. Shortcomings of the present research are investigated. Key topics for future research in the field of impact of climate change on water system are put forward.

文章引用: 陈晓宏 , 房春艳 , 张 云 (2012) 气候变化的水文水资源效应研究进展。 气候变化研究快报, 1, 96-105. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2012.13012

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