﻿ 基于聚类分析和因子分析对RCEP沿线国家经济发展水平的综合评价

# 基于聚类分析和因子分析对RCEP沿线国家经济发展水平的综合评价Comprehensive Evaluation of Economic Development Level of RCEP Countries—Based on Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis

Abstract: By the end of 2020, the long-negotiated RCEP was officially signed by 15 countries. As for the members of RCEP, the signing of RCEP will accelerate their economic development process. Firstly, through cluster analysis, the RCEP member countries are divided into two categories according to their economic development. Then, through principal component factor analysis, the seven variables affecting economic development are condensed into three independent factors, and the economic development status of RCEP member countries is ranked by comprehensive factor score. For China, it should seize the opportunity of RCEP to increase the construction of the Belt and Road initiative in Southeast Asian countries and increase investment in them.

1. 引言

2020年11月15日，东盟10国以及中国、日本、韩国、新西兰、澳大利亚等15个国家，正式签署区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)。RCEP中所含内容十分广泛，除了消除内部贸易壁垒、创造和完善自由的投资环境、扩大服务贸易，RCEP还将涉及知识产权保护、竞争政策等多领域。从2018年统计数据来看，RCEP覆盖15个成员国约23亿人口，占全球人口的30%，GDP总和超过了25万亿美元 [1]。此外，RCEP同时还覆盖全球最有增长潜力的两个大市场，一个是14亿人口的中国市场，另一个是6亿多人口的东盟市场，是有史以来全球规模最大的自贸协定。

2. 正文

2.1. 指标选取

Table 1. Meaning of variables and units

2.2. 数据来源

2.3. 对于RCEP成员国的聚类分析

Figure 1. Outcome of ward cluster

2.4. 对于RCEP成员国的因子分析

2.4.1. Bartlett球形检验和KMO检验

Bartlett球形检验和KMO检验是进行因子分析前必不可少的步骤。Bartlett检验的零假设为相关系数矩阵是一个单位阵，如果拒绝该原假设则说明变量之间存在相关性。而KMO检验可以得到变量之间的简单相关和偏向关系数，KMO的取值范围介于0到1之间，越接近1说明越合适做因子分析。

2.4.2. 主成分因子分析

Figure 2. Correlation coefficient matrix

Table 2. Contribution rate of each factor

Figure 3. Factor correlation

2.4.3. 因子评分

$f=\frac{{\lambda }_{1}{f}_{1}+{\lambda }_{2}{f}_{2}+{\lambda }_{3}{f}_{3}}{{\lambda }_{1}+{\lambda }_{2}+{\lambda }_{3}}$

Table 4. Score on each factor

Figure 4. Load diagram of the first factor and the second factor

Figure 5. The graph of the original coordinates on the first two factors

Table 5. Comprehensive factor score

3. 结论

[1] 郭继光. RCEP签署对中国和世界的重要意义[J]. 旗帜, 2020(12): 89-90.

[2] 雷平, 顾新悦. “一带一路”沿线国家经济发展水平的综合评价——基于聚类分析和因子分析[J]. 对外经贸, 2020(2): 10-15+9.

[3] 吴敏. RCEP下中国与东南亚跨境电商合作的机遇与挑战[J]. 对外经贸实务, 2021(6): 27-30.

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