﻿ 京郊农户发起农业众筹意愿的影响因素研究

# 京郊农户发起农业众筹意愿的影响因素研究Study on the Factors Influencing the Participation Willingness of Agricultural Crowdfunders in Beijing Suburbs

Abstract: Based on the survey data, using the Logit model, from four aspects of family characteristics, produc-tion and operation characteristics, agricultural crowdfunding cognition, participation expectation, this paper explores the influence factors of Beijing suburbs farmers’ willingness to launch the agri-cultural crowdfunding. It is found that age, risk preference, sales difficulty, expected profit and ex-pected liquidity problem alleviation will have a significant positive impact on the participation willingness. Adding to the interaction terms between the cognition degree of agricultural crowd-funding and the expected effect of agricultural crowdfunding, the further analysis shows that the degree of cognition has a significant positive impact on the willingness to initiate agricultural crowd- funding. However, with the improvement of cognition, the attitude of sample farmers to-wards the expected higher profits of agricultural crowdfunding is more conservative. On this basis, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.

1. 引言

2. 研究假设、实证模型和数据

2.1. 研究假设

2.1.1. 基于前景理论的假设

2.1.2. 基于效用价值论的假设

2.1.3. 基于计划行为理论的假设

2.2. 数据来源

2.3. 模型与变量

Logit模型是一种离散选择模型，可用来处理因变量为离散变量的情况。在调研问卷中，我们针对农业众筹的发起意愿设置了愿意和不愿意两个选项，因此，本文选择二值因变量模型Logit模型来对农业众筹发起意愿的影响因素进行回归分析。

Logit模型的形式为：

${y}_{i}=\beta {X}_{i}+{u}_{i}$ (1)

Table 1. Explanatory variables and their explanation

3. 实证分析结果及讨论

3.1. 描述性统计

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of variables

3.2. 回归结果

Table 3. Logit regression results

3.3. 稳健性检验

Logit和Probit两个模型的区别在于对随机误差项采用的分布函数不同，前者假设随机误差项服从逻辑概率分布，而Probit模型则假设服从正态分布，因此本文采用Probit模型对回归结果进行稳健性检验。其中模型(3)的变量和模型(1)相同，模型(4)的变量和模型(2)相同。表4是利用Probit模型的回归结果，变量的符号和统计显著性均未发生改变，且两个模型回归结果的边际效应基本一致。表明本文的实证分析结果具有稳健性。

4. 结论与建议

Table 4. Probit regression results

1) 京郊农户亟待通过农业众筹变革生产经营模式

2) 地方政府应积极推动农业众筹平台的规范发展

3) 积极发挥集体组织的功能，提高农户组织化程度

[1] De Buysere, K., Gajda, O., Kleverlaan, R., Marom, D. and Klaes, M. (2012) A Framework for European Crowdfunding. European Crowdfunding Network (ECN). http://www.europecrowdfunding.org/european_crowdfunding_framework

[2] Alexandra, M. and Joern, B. (2014) Crowdfunding: A Literature Review and Research Directions. Trier University.

[3] Ryu, S. and Kim, Y.G. (2018) Money Is Not Everything: A Typology of Crowdfunding Project Creators. The Journal of Strategic Information Systems, 27, 350-368.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsis.2018.10.004

[4] 宫佳林. F2F模式下农民对农业众筹的意愿分析——以湖北孝感地区为例[J]. 金融经济, 2017(6): 33-36.

[5] 叶荣榕. 农民参与农业众筹项目的意愿研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 福州: 福建农林大学, 2018.

[6] 葛岩, 秦裕林. 善行的边界:社会与市场规范冲突中的公益选择——基于上海交通大学学生的研究[J]. 中国社会科学, 2012(8): 72-88+204.

[7] 何可, 张俊飚, 张露, 吴雪莲. 人际信任、制度信任与农民环境治理参与意愿——以农业废弃物资源化为例[J].管理世界, 2015(5): 75-88.

[8] 周颖刚, 蒙莉娜, 卢琪. 高房价挤出了谁?——基于中国流动人口的微观视角[J]. 经济研究, 2019, 54(9): 106-122.

Top