﻿ 商场折扣力度模型的建立与分析

# 商场折扣力度模型的建立与分析The Establishment and Analysis of the Model about Discount Strength of the Market

Abstract: In this paper, based on the analysis of the discount and promotion behavior of shopping malls, the discount strength model is established. The discount rate of goods is a direct reflection of the discount intensity of goods, but it is not comprehensive, therefore, considering the introduction of variable discount attitude T, then the discount intensity is Z=TP. The discount attitude is determined by three attributes: the purchase quantity, the number of discount commodities, and the limited purchase quantity of discount commodities. The multi-attribute decision model T=w1G+w2N+w3H is used to determine the discount attitude. Among them, the weight is determined by entropy weight method, and finally the discount strength is calculated
Z=(w1G+w2N+w3H)P. Finally, the paper analyzes the relationship between discount intensity, sales volume and profit by using the actual data of a shopping mall.

1. 问题引入

2. 折扣力度模型的建立与求解

2.1. 模型假设

1) 打折促销时限购数量为0视为无效方案。

2) 价格并非影响销售额的唯一变量，由于数据有限，本文只考虑价格因素。

2.2. 基于熵权理论的属性权重确定方法 [3]

2.3. 折扣力度模型的建立 [4]

2.3.1. 商场每天的商品折扣率

Table 1. The average daily discount rate

2.3.2. 商场每天的折扣力度

$Z=T\stackrel{¯}{P}=\left({w}_{1}G+{w}_{2}N+{w}_{3}H\right)\stackrel{¯}{P}$ (4)

2.3.3. 模型的求解

Table 2. Daily discount rate

3. 分析折扣力度与商品销售额和利润率的关系 [5]

3.1. 分析折扣力度与商品销售额的关系

Table 3. Daily gross sales and profit margins

$r=\frac{n\cdot \sum x\cdot y-\sum x\cdot \sum y}{\sqrt{n\cdot \sum {x}^{2}-{\left(\sum x\right)}^{2}}\cdot \sqrt{n\cdot \sum {y}^{2}-{\left(\sum y\right)}^{2}}}$

Figure 1. Scatter plot of discount intensity and turnover

Table 4. Regression parameter (1)

Table 5. Regression parameter (2)

$Y=-2403.27+183215.4Z$

Figure 2. Fitting regression of turnover and discounts

3.2. 分析折扣力度与商品利润率的关系

Figure 3. Scatter plot of discount intensity and profit margin

4. 结论

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[3] 孙钰. 基于数据挖掘的电商促销活动效应与销量预测研究[Ｄ]: [硕士学位论文]. 上海: 东华大学, 2017.

[4] 姜启源. 数学模型[M]. 第三版. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2003.

[5] 危磊, 等. 统计学基础[M]. 北京: 人民邮电出版社, 2015.

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