# 管理者过度自信、内部控制与并购溢价——兼论金融行业监管的溢出效应 Managers’ Over-Confidence, Internal Control and M & A Premium—On the Spillover Effect of Financial Industry Supervision

Abstract: This paper selects the M & A transaction events from 2014 to 2016, studies the current situation of M & A premium due to overconfidence of enterprise managers, and then makes a detailed analysis of the relationship between the two variables. In the aspect of internal control, the adjustment effect is studied by using principal-agent theory as the starting point. The empirical study shows that the overconfidence of managers will make it easier for enterprises to pay a higher premium in M & A decision. The companies with overconfident managers pay a higher premium, in which internal control plays an inhibitory role. The conclusion of this paper is that doing well internal control can effectively reduce the possibility of M & A premium, reduce the extreme risk caused by information asymmetry, reduce the times of agency conflicts, and have certain constraints on management decision-making behavior. Good internal control can effectively inhibit the situation of enterprise premium M & A, which has a significant guidance for optimizing the regulatory mechanism of enterprise valuation and related information disclosure. Moreover, analyzing whether bank shareholding has governance effect on premium M & A is also helpful to deeply understand the spillover effect of bank loan fund supervision and the institutional arrangement of debt-to-equity swap.

1. 引言

2. 研究假设与模型设计

2.1. 研究假设

2.2. 模型设计

$PRE={a}_{0}+{a}_{1}OVERCONF+{a}_{2}CONTROL+\epsilon$ (1)

$PRE={a}_{0}+{a}_{1}OVERCONF+{a}_{2}FLOV+{a}_{3}OVERCONF×FLOV+{a}_{4}CONTROL+\epsilon$ (2)

3. 实证结果

3.1. 描述性统计

Table 1. Full sample descriptive statistics

Table 2. Descriptive statistics by industry

3.2. 管理者过度自信、内部控制与并购溢价的实证结果

Table 3. Empirical analysis results

4. 结论及建议

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