﻿ 基于平行向量自回归时间序列VAR(2)的蛋鸭室外养殖环境预测模型

# 基于平行向量自回归时间序列VAR(2)的蛋鸭室外养殖环境预测模型 The Prediction Model of Egg Duck Outdoor Culture Environment Based on Parallel

Abstract:
It has always been a difficult problem that is accurate prediction of breeding environment in waterfowl breeding industry. Taking the outdoor culture environment parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind direction and solar radiation as the research object, this paper proposed a linear prediction model of egg duck culture environment with high efficiency, and high precision by using the parallel vector autoregressive time series VAR(2) (Vector Autoregressive (2)) model prediction method which realizes a accurate prediction, early warning and control of the healthy culture environment of egg duck.

1. 引言

2. 材料方法

2.1. 数据

2.2. 模型建立

1) 模型的识别：明确输入环境因子数据与预测环境因子数据之间的平行向量自回归VAR(p)模型表达式；

2) 模型的参数估计与检验；

3) 模型的诊断分析。

2.3. 预测结果评价方法

3. 结果

3.1. 广州番禺钟村室外蛋鸭养殖环境的VAR(2)模型

$Z=X\beta +A$ (3)

Table 1. VAR(2) Model Parameters β of outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun Panyu Guangzhou

${\Sigma }_{aML}=\left(\begin{array}{cccccc}0.010409& 0.51356& 1.938531& -0.00381& -0.03442& 0.000177\\ 0.51356& 420.9221& 334.5371& -1.71332& -0.13921& 0.045674\\ 1.938531& 334.5371& 8307.817& 18.94704& -84.5386& 0.100586\\ -0.00381& -1.71332& 18.94704& 0.178217& -0.58644& 0.000404\\ -0.03442& -0.13921& -84.5386& -0.58644& 4.504998& 0.000733\\ 0.000177& 0.045674& 0.100586& 0.000404& 0.000733& 0.000353\end{array}\right)$

Table 2. VAR(2) model t-ratio of outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun Panyu Guangzhou

3.2. 预测结果

Figure 1. Wind speed prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Figure 2. Wind direction prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Figure 3. Pressure Prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Figure 4. Humidity prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Figure 5. Solar radiation prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Figure 6. Temperature prediction map of VAR(2) Model for outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

Table 3. Evaluation results of VAR(2) model of outdoor laying duck culture environment in Zhongcun, Panyu, Guangzhou

4. 讨论

NOTES

*通讯作者。

[1] 林勇, 陈宽维, 师蔚群, 等. 超长蛋鸭笼养舍内不同区域环境参数与蛋鸭生产性能比较分析[J]. 家畜生态学报, 2016, 37(8): 31-35.

[2] 吴艳萍. 蛋鸭无公害养殖的环境控制要点[J]. 水禽世界, 2010(1): 14-15.

[3] 江宵兵, 林如龙, 王纪茂, 等. 不同喷淋模式对旱地圈养蛋鸭生产性能的影响[J]. 中国畜牧兽医, 2016, 37(11): 205-208.

[4] 林勇, 施振旦, 顾洪如, 等. 生物发酵床对苏邮1号鸭生产性能和蛋品质及肉品质性状的影响[J]. 中国畜牧杂志, 2015, 51(17): 64-69．

[5] 韦启鹏, 刘林秀, 储怡士, 等. 不同季节条件下笼养与平养蛋鸭生产性能的比较分析[J]. 中国畜牧兽医, 2014, 41(12): 137-140．

[6] 施振旦, 麦燕隆, 赵伟. 我国鸭养殖模式及环境控制现状和展望[J]. 中国家禽, 2012, 34(9): 1-6.

[7] 刘双印, 徐龙琴, 李道亮, 曾立华. 基于时间相似数据的支持向量机水质溶解氧在线预测[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(3): 155-162.

[8] 徐龙琴, 陈跃霞, 张军, 刘双印, 李道亮. 基于WA-ABC-WLSSVR的南美白对虾工厂化育苗溶解氧预测模型[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2017, 50(4): 608-617.

[9] 王萍, 程冰, 孙金领. 基于ARIMA的新城疫风险预测模型[J]. 青岛农业大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 33(1): 68-71.

[10] 巫伟峰,万忠. 广东生猪价格波动研究——基于2005-2017年生猪价格时间序列分析[J]. 南方农村, 2018, 34(5): 21-26.

Top