﻿ 供给侧结构性改革视角下财政政策对经济增长的影响探求——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析

# 供给侧结构性改革视角下财政政策对经济增长的影响探求——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析 The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Supply-Side Structural Reform—Impulse Response Analysis Based on VAR Model

Abstract: Fiscal policy is an important lever of economic growth, which cannot be ignored. Through the VAR model analysis of fiscal policy and economic growth, it is concluded that there is a significant statistical correlation between China’s fiscal policy and economic growth. But there is also a time lag, and the impact of fiscal policy tools on the fluctuation of economic growth is not the same. In light of the background of supply-side structural reform, we need to coordinate fiscal policies as a whole to ensure that they are both timely and prudent, streamline administration and delegate power, and work hard, so as to better serve economic development.

1. 引言

2. 文献综述

3. 财政政策促进经济增长

3.1. 财政政策概述

3.2. 经济增长现状

3.3. 财政政策作用于经济增长

4. 实证分析

4.1. 数据选取和统计性描述

Figure 1. A logarithmic time-series of economic growth, fiscal expenditure, and taxation

Table 1. ADF test results of each variable

Table 2. Co-integration test results

4.3. VAR模型估计结果及分析

${Y}_{t}={A}_{0}+{A}_{1}{Y}_{t-p}+{A}_{2}{Y}_{t-p}+\cdots +{A}_{p}{Y}_{t-p}+{U}_{t}$

Table 3. Selection table of optimal lag periods in VAR model

$\begin{array}{l}\text{LNGDP}=0.0697+0.6743*\text{LNGDP}\left(-1\right)+0.2869*\text{LNGDP}\left(-2\right)\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{ }\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.2900*\text{LNGEX}\left(-1\right)-0.0809*\text{LNGEX}\left(-2\right)\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{ }\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}+0.0585*\text{LNTAX}\left(-1\right)+0.3639*\text{LNTAX}\left(-2\right)\end{array}$

Figure 2. VAR model stability test

4.4. 格兰杰因果关系检验

Table 4. Granger causality test results of VAR model

4.5. 脉冲响应函数

Figure 3. Impulse response graph of LNGDP, LNGEX and LNTAX

4.6. 方差分解

Table 5. Variance decomposition results of LNGDP

4.7. 结论与建议

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