房地产泡沫的量度方法及应用
The Measurement of Real Estate Bubble and Its Applications

作者: 钟开琦 :上海财经大学;

关键词: 房地产泡沫资产定价Real-Estate Bubble Asset Pricing

摘要:
日常生活中我们经常在不同的媒体见到“资产泡沫”这个词,但很少人能够真正表达其具体定义或涵义。一般而言,房地产泡沫是指房地产价格偏离了基本价值的部份。大多数量度泡沫的方法都是以相关数据的水平值来计算(例如收益还原法及指标法),而忽略数据的增长率。本文则以房地产价格增长率与修正了的资本边际收益率的偏离,去量度房地产泡沫。由于这方法需要计算的变数较少,故此比较简单直接。我们亦将这个方法运用于上世纪80年代后期的日本地价、及上世纪80年代至近年的香港住宅楼价分析上,发现两地的房地产泡沫,都很容易便能以简单的图表显示出来。

Abstract:
We always come across the term “real-estate bubble” in various media in our daily life, however, not many of us can give a proper definition or explain the meaning of it. Basically, real-estate bubble is the deviation of the market value of a real-estate from its fundamental value. Most of the measurements of bub- bles are using level values of relevant data (e.g. Return-discounting model and index model), rather than us- ing the growth rates. This paper uses the deviation between the growth rate of real-estate price and the “re- fined” marginal return of capital to measure bubbles. Since this method involves a smaller number of relevant variables, it is more simple and direct. Applications have been made to the analyses of land price of Japanand property-price ofHong Kong, since 1980s, and real-estate bubbles of the two economies can be shown clearly in simple graphs.

文章引用: 钟开琦 (2012) 房地产泡沫的量度方法及应用。 财富涌现与流转, 2, 15-21. doi: 10.12677/ETW.2012.23009

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