﻿ 基于风险元传递的连锁故障预测和评估

# 基于风险元传递的连锁故障预测和评估Cascading Failure Forecast and Risk Assessment Model Based on Risk Element Transfer

Abstract: Based on the risk element transfer theory, the development mechanism of cascading failures is studied, and the development path of cascading failures is predicted, and the risk assessment of cascading failures is conducted. Firstly, considering the influence of the risk factors such as the line’s own fault, the transferring power flow, hidden failure and the weather on the outage of the initial line and the subsequent outage of the line, the risk element transfer model of the outage of the line is established. Based on the risk element transfer structure of line outage and cascading failures, the risk element transfer model of cascading failures is established. Secondly, based on risk theory, the cascading failures prediction and evaluation model based on risk element transfer is established. The development path of cascading failures is predicted, and the risk of cascading failures and the importance of fault link are calculated. Finally, the simulation of IEEE 30-bus test system proves the availability of the method.

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