汶川地震和芦山地震的有助于预报的地震前兆
The Precursor of Wenchuan and Lushun Earthquakes That Helps to Predict Earthquake

作者: 池顺良 :中国科学院计算地球动力学重点实验室,北京;鹤壁市地震局,河南 鹤壁; 池亮 :鹤壁市地震局,河南 鹤壁; 池毅 :鹤壁市防震技术研究所,河南 鹤壁;

关键词: 汶川地震四分量应变观测事件平静期数据失洽地震成核Wenchuan Earthquake Four-Component Strain Observation Quiet Period Loss of Self-Consistency Earthquake Nucleation

摘要: 是否存在“有助于预报的地震前兆”?马瑾院士由岩样加载实验发现岩石加载临近强度极值进入亚失稳阶段,发出应变、位移、温度变化特征信号,之后岩样破裂。大地震前是否能观测到这些信号?观测到了,如何识别应力已达峰值强度?姑咱地震台YRY-4分量钻孔应变仪汶川大震前550天中接收到3700多个异常应变脉冲,震后衰减。2014年底发现,脉冲出现初期,表征脉冲数据自洽性的k值大于0.99;大震前夕k值逐渐减小至0.4,数据失洽。地层连续无裂隙是应变数据满足自洽的条件,失洽是震源区地层连续性破坏越来越严重,大震将发生的标志。汶川大地震前五个月时出现5天中一个脉冲事件也没有的平静期,脉冲事件再度增多后大地震发生。岩石加载声发射现象,加载接近峰值强度出现声发射平静期,继续加载声发射再现后岩样破裂。在数千脉冲事件背景下,出现数据失洽及平静期,这两项特征有助于判断地层加载进入亚失稳阶段及何时达到强度峰值,地震必将发生。2013年芦山7级地震前的440天中,姑咱台又记录到1000多个脉冲事件,震前2个月时又出现5天平静期。在适当位置布设精密应变观测网,有可能观测到,并能识别出“有助预报的地震前兆”。汶川、芦山地震观测中得到的认识,具有普遍性还是特例,还要在实践中接受检验。

Abstract: Whether there exist “earthquake precursors that facilitate earthquake prediction”? From rock experiments Ma Jin, Academician of CAS P, found that when the specimen is loaded near to its strength limit and enters a meta-instable stage, it emits characteristic signals of strain, displacement, and temperature, and then the rock specimen breaks. Before a large earthquake can we observe such signals? If we can, how do we know the stress has reached the peak strength? In 550 days before the Wenchuan earthquake the YRY 4-component strainmeter in Guzan seismic station received more than 3700 abnormal strain pulses, which were then attenuated after the earthquake. In the end of 2014 when the pulses started to appear, it is found that the k value, which characterized the self-consistency of pulse data, was greater than 0.99; whereas the k value decreased gradually till 0.4 immediately before the earthquake, and the data lost self-consistency. For self-consistency of the strain data the Earth strata should be continuous and without cracks, the loss of self-consistency indicates that the continuity of strata in the earthquake source region is increasingly damaged and a large earthquake may occur soon. About 5 months before the Wenchuan earthquake there was a quiet period without a single pulse in 5 days, then after the impulsive events increased again the great earthquake took place. This is similar to the acoustic emission phenomenon during rock loading; a quiet period appears when the load approaches to the peak strength, with continuing loading acoustic emission reappears then the rock specimen breaks. On a background of thousands of impulsive events, the loss of data self-consistency and the appearance of quiet period are two features that help to judge whether the loading of strata has entered the meta-instable stage and when it reaches to the strength limit, thus leading to the inevitable occurrence of an earthquake. In 440 days before the Lushan M7 earthquake of 2013, the Guzan station recorded again more than 1000 pulses, and a quiet period of 5 days appeared 2 months before the earthquake. By setting up a precise strain monitoring network in proper locations, we may be able to observe and identify “earthquake precursors that are useful for earthquake prediction”. Whether the knowledge acquired from Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake observations is general or specific, it remains to be tested in future practice.

文章引用: 池顺良 , 池亮 , 池毅 (2017) 汶川地震和芦山地震的有助于预报的地震前兆。 地球科学前沿, 7, 202-214. doi: 10.12677/AG.2017.72022

参考文献

[1] 陈运泰, 吴忠良, 吕苑苑. 地震学今昔谈[M]. 济南: 山东教育出版社, 2001, 56-63.

[2] 马瑾. 从“是否存在有助于预报的地震先兆”说起[J]. 科学通报, 2016, 61(4-5): 409-414.

[3] 马瑾, Sherman, S.I., 郭彦双. 地震前亚失稳应力状态的识别——以5˚拐折断层变形温度场演化的实验为例[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2012, 42(5): 633-645.

[4] 马瑾, 郭彦双. 失稳前断层加速协同化的实验室证据和地震实例[J]. 地震地质, 2014, 36(3): 547-561.

[5] 冯德益, 潘琴龙, 郑斯华等. 长周期形变波及其所反应的短期和临震地震前兆[J]. 地震学报, 1984, 6(1): 41-56.

[6] Gladwin, M.T. (1984) High Precision Multi-Component Borehole Deformation Monitoring. Review of Scientific Instruments, 55, 2011-2016.
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1137704

[7] 邱泽华, 石耀霖. 国际钻孔应变观测的发展现状[J]. 地震学报, 2004, 26(s1): 162-168.

[8] 邱泽华, 张宝红. 我国钻孔应力-应变地震前兆监测台网的现状[J]. 国际地震动态, 2002(6): 5-9.

[9] 潘立宙. 测量地应力的钻孔变形法[M]//中国地质科学院地质力学研究所和国家地震局地震地质大队, 编. 地应力测量的原理和应用. 北京: 地质出版社, 1981: 1-47.

[10] 潘立宙. 与地应力测量有关的几个公式的推导和讨论[M]. 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所和国家地震局地震地质大队编, 地应力测量的原理和应用. 北京: 地质出版社, 1981, 163-203.

[11] 张晶, 刘琦. 四分量式钻孔应变观测资料的处理与分析[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2010, 30(6): 6-9.

[12] 邱泽华, 石耀霖, 欧阳祖熙. 四分量应变观测的实地相对标定[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2005, 25(1): 118-122.

[13] 张凌空, 牛安福. 姑咱台钻孔应变观测曲线年变现象成因探讨[J]. 国际地震动态, 2015(9): 104-104.

[14] 邱泽华, 杨光, 唐磊. 芦山M7.0地震前姑咱台钻孔应变观测异常[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2015, 35(1): 158- 161.

[15] 池顺良, 刘琦, 池毅, 等. 2013年芦山Ms7. 0地震的震前及临震应变异常[J]. 地震学报, 2013, 35(3): 296-303.

[16] 刘琦, 张晶, 池顺良, 等. 2013年芦山Ms7.0地震前后姑咱台四分量钻孔应变时频特征分析[J]. 地震学报, 2014, 36(5): 770-779.

[17] 池顺良, 池毅, 邓涛, 等. 从5.12汶川地震前后分量应变仪观测到的应变异常看建设密集应变观测网络的必要性[J]. 国际地震动态, 2009(1): 1-13.

[18] 邱泽华, 周龙寿, 池顺良. 用超限率分析法研究汶川地震的前兆应变变化[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2009, 29(4), 1-4.

[19] 邱泽华, 张宝红, 唐磊, 等. 汶川地震前姑咱台观测的异常应变变化[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2010, 40(8): 1031- 1039.

[20] 刘琦, 张晶. S变换在汶川地震前后应变变化分析中的应用[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2011, 31(4): 6-9.

[21] 李庶林, 唐海燕. 不同加载条件下岩石材料破裂过程的声发射特性研究[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2010, 32(1): 147-152.

[22] 尹贤刚, 李庶林, 唐海燕, 等. 岩石破坏声发射平静期及其分形特征研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2009, 28(s2): 3383-3390

[23] 尹贤刚, 李庶林. 岩石受载破坏前兆特征——声发射平静研究[J]. 金属矿山, 2008, V38(7): 124-128.

[24] 徐东强, 周昌达, 许昭永. 岩石试件刚度及压力机刚度对岩石主破裂前声发射相对平静的影响[J]. 地震研究, 1994, 17(8): 802-807.

[25] 马胜利, 蒋海昆, 扈小燕, 等. 基于声发射试验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J]. 地震地质, 2004, 26(3): 426-435.

[26] 川崎一郎, 陈会忠等译. 何谓慢地震: 探索巨大地震预报的可能性[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 2013, 25-38.

[27] 王迪晋, 李正媛, 吕品姬. 慢地震研究综述[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2007, 27(s1): 21-25.

[28] 吴忠良. 地震学中的“暗物质”——静地震与地震预测研究的未来[J]. 国际地震动态, 2001(9): 1-5.

[29] 池顺良, 武红岭, 骆鸣津. 钻孔应变观测中潮汐因子离散性与各向异性原因探讨——“十五”数字地震观测网络分量钻孔应变仪首批观测资料分析解释[J]. 地球物理学进展, 2007, 22(6): 1746-1753.

[30] Dodge, D.A. and Beroza, G.C. (1995) Foreshock Sequence of the 1992 Landers, California, Earthquake and Its Implication for Earthquake Nucleation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 100, 9865-9880.
https://doi.org/10.1029/95JB00871

[31] Ohnaka, M. (1992) Earthquake Source Nucleation: A Physical Model for Short Term Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211, 149-178.

[32] 池顺良, 张晶, 池毅. 汶川、鲁甸、康定地震前应变数据由自洽到失洽的转变与地震成核[J]. 国际地震动态, 2014(12): 3-13.

[33] 李四光. 论地震[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 1977: 5, 130-136.

[34] 吴忠良, 蒋长胜, 彭汉书, 等. 与地震预测预报有关的几个物理问题[J]. 物理, 38(4): 233-237.

[35] 马钦忠. 中外几次重要地震预测与预报结果之启示[J]. 地震学报, 2014, 36(3): 500-513.

分享
Top