﻿ 造斜率影响因素与预测方法研究

# 造斜率影响因素与预测方法研究Research on Influential Factors of Build-up Rate and Prediction Method

Abstract: The scientific and efficient prediction method of build-up rates was the key technology to optimize drilling parameters and to improve wellbore trajectory control accuracy and efficiency. It was of great significance for the efficient and low-cost development of complex directional wells. The prediction of build-up rate, which had the characteristics of fuzziness, randomness and non-    linearity, was affected by various coupling factors. As a result, it was difficult to describe with ma-thematical and mechanical models, and it was proposed that Kriging surrogate model was applied to predict the build-up rate of steering tools. Starting from the analysis of the factors affecting the build-up rate, the influence of difference between the structure and build-up principles of the steering tools was emphatically analyzed. The current methods were summarized into three types of geometric prediction, mechanic prediction and regression analysis and prediction. By compar-ison between them, their limitations were pointed out. From the aspect of regression analysis and prediction, a novel method based on the build-up rate of Kriging surrogate model is proposed; the scientificalness and high efficiency of the method are analyzed; the concrete procedures for pre-diction and key issues for attention are proposed; it provides new ways for predicting the build-up rate.

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