Rules of Runoff Variation in Lancang River Basin
Abstract: According to the annual average runoff data at Xiaowan and Nuozhadu stations in the Lancang River basin from 1953 to 2014, the characteristics of distribution were analyzed with the adjustable parameters and distribution concentrations, and the long-term trend of runoff was analyzed using accumulated variance analysis methods and the non-parametric Kendall test. Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze mutation points of the runoff; and wavelet analysis method was used to identify cycle of runoff. Then rules of runoff variation in Lancang River basin can be analyzed. The results showed that 1) the runoff showed obvious seasonal change and the yearly uneven degree of runoff distribution from 1953 to 2014 in Lancang River basin changed little over years; 2) the overall trend of runoff at the two stations was not obvious, with an increasing or decreasing tendency during some years; 3) the runoff mutation point may be in the 1981; 4) 19-year variation cycle existed in Lancang River basin.
文章引用: 胡振奎 , 赵鹏雁 , 张利平 , 艾显仁 , 魏 超 , 李 江 (2016) 澜沧江流域径流演变规律研究。 水资源研究， 5， 478-487. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2016.55055
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