China’s Housing Bubbles and the Driving Factors—A Comparison of Three Cities
Abstract: The long-term low interest rates for mortgages and the real estate related taxes in China conti-nuously encouraged the investment demand for housing products, and consequently resulted in high housing prices. Chinese government launched a series of housing regulation to dampen the over-heating real estate market since 2010. Given that China has a vast territory of great variety, the impact of these policy tools on different local real estate markets may vary. The purpose of this study aims to explore the real estate bubbles and the determinants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We measured the housing bubbles in these cities from 2007 to 2012 by comparing the fundamental values with market prices. Based on the estimated housing bubbles, we then applied the Cointegration analysis to further explore the factors contributing to the housing bubbles in three cities. The empirical results show that disposable income and total mortgage loans of financial institutions are positively related to China’s housing bubbles. In addition, the impact of loan interest on housing bubbles was positive first and then turns negative with respect to the magni-tude of increasing rates. Results of this study suggest that macro policy tools to curb bubbles should consider different characteristics of cities for plausible policy results.
文章引用: 黄 斐 , 林左裕 (2016) 中国城市不动产价格泡沫之比较探讨 。 金融， 6， 130-147. doi: 10.12677/FIN.2016.64014
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