﻿ 山东省批发和零售业销售总额的预测——基于ARIMA模型

# 山东省批发和零售业销售总额的预测——基于ARIMA模型Forecast of the Total Sales of Wholesale and Retail in Shandong Province—Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract: The sales price of wholesale and retail of commodities is one of the important factors that affect people’s living standard. It has positive significance to forecast the total sales of the wholesale and retail of commodities. Time series analysis provides a suit of methods dealing with dynamic data with the scientific basis, namely with the analysis and investigation, we can constitutionally know the structure and complex character of the data, so we can achieve the purpose of forecasting its development trend and putting up essential control. In this paper, using the method of Box-Jen- kins ARMIA model, the date sequence of wholesale and retail sales from 1979 to 2014 of Shandong province is analyzed, the model of auto regressive integrated moving average ARIMA (0,1,6) was established. The results show that the ARIMA model has good fitting effects on the original data sequence. The prediction effect can be used for short-term prediction of the total sales of wholesale and retail in Shandong province. It provides a basis and reference for government departments to formulate economic plans. According to the results of the prediction model established, in Shandong province the wholesale and retail sales remain high growth trend in the coming years.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s703-001-8173-x

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