The Change of the Relationship between CO2 Emissions and the Driving Forces—Quantile Regression Based on STIRPAT Model
Abstract: In most previous studies of the relationship between CO2 emissions, population, affluence and technology, the ecological elasticities of population and affluence were assumed to be both time invariant and space invariant. Based on the STIRPAT model, by using robust quantile regression, we studied the change of the relationship between CO2 emissions, population, affluence and technology at different CO2 emissions levels during the period 1992-2009. Our main results are as follows: 1) the relationship between CO2 emissions, population, affluence and technology changes slightly in countries where the ecological elasticity of affluence is greater than that of the population. 2) In those countries with relatively high levels of CO2 emissions, higher emissions mean that increases in population and affluence have smaller effects on the impacts of emissions, but technology has a greater effect on those impacts. 3) In those countries with high CO2 emissions, the ecological elasticity of affluence increases from less than 0.65 to 1.1, but in countries with moderate or low CO2 emissions, the ecological elasticity of affluence is stable at approximately 1.2. 4) The shifting scope of the technology intercepts of nine different quantile regression analyses decreases from 8.5 in 1992 to 2.8 in 2009.
文章引用: 阳卫锋 , 易伟义 , 余 博 (2016) 碳排放与其影响因素之间关系的变化—基于STIRPAT模型的分位数回归分析。 低碳经济， 5， 27-35. doi: 10.12677/JLCE.2016.53005
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