Intelligent Water Resources Management Strategy under Urbanization
关键词: 水资源管理； 都市化； 非支配排序遗传算法-II (NSGA-II)； 系统动力模式； 多目标水库操作； Water Resources Management； Urbanization； Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II)； System Dynamics； Multi-Objective Reservoir Operation摘要:
Abstract: Along with the changes over time, the urbanization of Taoyuan in Taiwan has progressed rapidly while the population growth and industrial development has led to a significant increase in the water demands in this area. Therefore, the water regulation of the Shimen Reservoir in Taoyuan is a critical issue, especially for drought periods. In response to increasing water demands and hydrological uncertainties, this study aims to build an intelligent water allocation system in order to suitably make water regulation with a flexible transfer of water from irrigation sectors to industrial and municipal sectors for reducing the water pressure in public sectors during drought periods. According to the analysis on the historical data collected from agricultural and industrial sectors as well as population statistics in Taoyuan during 2005 and 2014, this study first simulates the future water demands for the period of 2015 and 2030 in Taoyuan. We next design nine water supply scenarios in response to the possible drought periods in the future based on the ten-day inflow data collected from the Shimen Reservoir in three drought years and three initial storage capacities of the reservoir for these drought years. According to the simulation results of future water demand and supply, we analyze the water shortage conditions during 2015 and 2030 by using M-5 rule curves and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). In search of the minimal modified shortage index (MSI) and the maximal ratio of effective reservoir storage capacity (RRS), the results indicate that the largest improvement rates of the MSI and the averaged effective reservoir storage capacity ratio for ten-day periods can reach as high as 31.3% and 9.8%, respectively. We hope that the proposed intelligent water allocation system will pave the way to future research for sustaining water resources management.
文章引用: 张斐章 , 蔡文柄 , 郑仲廉 (2016) 因应都市化之智能型水资源管理策略。 水资源研究， 5， 314-325. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2016.54038
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