入境宁波的热带气旋活动特征的气候统计及其年代际变化
Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Ningbo: Climatological Statistics and Decadal Variability
作者: 吴彦洁 , 许士斌 :中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室,山东 青岛;中国海洋大学山东省高校海洋–大气相互作用与气候重点实验室,山东 青岛; 黄 菲 :中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室,山东 青岛;中国海洋大学山东省高校海洋–大气相互作用与气候重点实验室,山东 青岛;宁波大学宁波市非线性海洋和大气灾害系统协同创新中心,浙江 宁波;
关键词: 热带气旋; 入境宁波; 西太副高; 年代际变化; Walker环流; 潜在生成指数; Tropical Cyclones; Landfall at Ningbo; WPSH; Decadal Variability; Walker Circulation; GPI
摘要:Abstract: Based on the Best Track Dataset from China Meteorological Administration during 1949-2014, there were 71 tropical cyclones (TCs) during the period landfall in Ningbo. According to composited analysis and t-test, the area which TC genesis with strong east-wind and the location of westerlies play an important role in TC moving. During the autumn season (September and October) of global warming hiatus epoch after the mid-to-end of 1990s, the TC number of moving to Ningbo was increased significantly. The reason may be associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation became into its negative phase. Since the sea surface temperature showing a La Nina-like pattern, which enhanced Walker Circulation and further modulated western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the WPSH extended westward and intensified, causing TC moving favorite to western region and favorite landing at Chinese mainland. The genesis of TC over the western North Pacific also appears interdecadal shift indicated by genesis potential index of TC. The decreasing of vertical wind shear and increasing of relative humidity play a dominant role in TC genesis increasing.
文章引用: 吴彦洁 , 黄 菲 , 许士斌 (2016) 入境宁波的热带气旋活动特征的气候统计及其年代际变化。 气候变化研究快报, 5, 126-138. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2016.52016
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