国内外设计洪水计算方法的比较研究
Comparative Study of Different Design Flood Estimation Methods
作者: 徐长江 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉;长江水利委员会水文局,湖北 武汉; 郭生练 , 尹家波 , 刘章君 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉;
关键词: 设计洪水; 洪水频率分析; 参数估计; 适线准则; 合理性分析; Design Flood; Flood Frequency Analysis; Parameters Estimation; Curving-Fitting Guidelines; Rational Analysis
摘要:Abstract: The design flood is the key problem in hydropower project designing and watershed planning. The design flood estimation methods, the most frequently-used distribution functions and parameter estimation methods were introduced. Four kinds of flood frequency analysis models were built for the comparative study. The results demonstrate that the design floods estimated by the P-III/CF model which is recommended by Chinese regulation are larger by 10% - 15% than other models. It is also shown that the representativeness of data series is significantly important. The historical flood information either can enhance or damage sample representativeness. The differences of results estimated by different models greatly have correlation with frequency distribution function, parameter estimation methods and curving-fitting guidelines. Taking the practical difficulties in flood designing into consideration, full at-tention should be paid to the reasonable analysis of basic data, the calculation process and the results.
文章引用: 徐长江 , 郭生练 , 尹家波 , 刘章君 (2016) 国内外设计洪水计算方法的比较研究。 水资源研究, 5, 127-135. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2016.52016
参考文献
[1] 中华人民共和国水利部. 水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范(SL44-2006) [S]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2006. Ministry of Water Conservancy of the People’s Republic of China. Regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects (SL 2006). Beijing: China Water Resources & Hydropower Press, 2006. (in Chinese)
[2] 郭生练, 刘章君, 熊立华. 设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价[J]. 水利学报, 2016, 47(3): 51-64. GUO Shenglian, LIU Zhangjun and XIONG Lihua. Advances and assessment on design flood estimation methods. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2016, 47(3): 51-64. (in Chinese)
[3] Catchment Area and Reservoirs Sectional Committee. Method for fixing the capacities of reservoirs. Indian: Indian Standard Institution, 1971.
[4] CHAKRABARTI, S. P., SINHA, N. K. and KANT, K. Design flood: An overview of Indian practice. Indian: EinDienst der ETH-Bibliothek, 1999.
[5] JAFRI, A.Md. Rational method of flood estimation for rural catchments in peninsular Malaysia. Malaysia: Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, 1974.
[6] TAYLOR, M. A. W., KIAT, T. Y. Design flood hydrograph estimation for rural catchments in peninsular Malaysia. Malaysia: Drainage and Irrigation Department Ministry of Agricultural Malaysia, 1980.
[7] ONG, C. Y. Magnitude and frequency of floods in peninsular Malaysia (revised and updated). Drainage and Irrigation Division, 1987.
[8] PILGRIM, D. H. Australian rainfall and runoff—A guide to flood estimation. Australia: Institution of Engineers, 1987.
[9] ROBSON, A., REED, D. Flood estimation handbook. Wallingford: Institute of Hydrology, 1999.
[10] WILSON, D., FLEIG, A. K., LAWRENCE, D., HISDAL, H., PETTERSSON, L. E. and HOLMQVIST, E. A review of NVE’s flood frequency estimation procedures. Norwegian: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, 2011.
[11] LANG, M., LAVABRE, J. Estimation de la crue centennale pour les plans de prévention des risques d’inondations. Paris: Editions Quae, 2007.
[12] CASTELLARIN, A., KOHNOVA, S., GAAL, L., FLEIG, A., SALINAS, J. L., TOUMAZIS, A., KJELDSEN, T. R. and MACDONALD, N. Review of applied statistical methods for flood frequency analysis in Europe. Wallingford: The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2012.
[13] ÁLVAREZ, A. J. Mapa de caudales máximos Memoria Técnica. Madrid: Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos del CEDEX, 2010.
[14] HARLIN, J. Hydrological modelling of extreme floods in Sweden. Norrköping: SMHI RH, 1992.
[15] KFR. Swedish guidelines for design flood determination for dams. Stockholm: Swedish Committee for Design Flood Determination, 2007.
[16] US Water Resources Council. Bulletin 17B. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency. Washington DC: US Water Resources Council, 1981.
[17] BROWN, W. D. Engineering and design flood-runoff analysis. Washington DC: US Army Crops of Engineers, 1994.
[18] WARD, R. Hydrology of floods in Canada: A guide to planning and design. Ottawa: National Research Council Canada, 1989.
[19] ANDERSON, I., RASKA, C. Dam safety guidelines. Toronto: Canadian Dam Association, 1999.
[20] HOSKING, J. R. M. L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distribution using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 1990, 52(1): 105-124.