The Decadal Shift between October to December Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific
作者: 余 晨 ：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛 ;
Abstract: Based on the data sets of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological Agency and the reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this paper demonstrated the decadal shift between October to December (OND) typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980 to 2013, and discussed the response of the OND typhoon activity to decadal shift of the large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, by means of the analysis of typhoon activity and its relative large-scale environmental factors, it brought a detail exposition of its impact mechanisms. We analyzed that the WNP typhoon activity during October to December from 1980 to 2013, compared with that from 1980 to 1994, the typhoon activity during October to December among 1995 to 2013 decreased significantly. We discovered the main factor that led to the decrease of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index was the decadal shift of The Maximum Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity. The anomalous SST patterns appear to be a La Niña pattern, leading to the increasing of MPI. However, it early affected by the western boundary during tropical cyclones development process so that fewer tropical cyclones enhanced to be typhoon. After 1995, the vertical wind shear and subtropical high to be strengthener, resulting in the southeastern Pacific Northwest dynamic conditions are not conducive to typhoon genesis; all these are the reasons for the decadal shift of typhoon activity. We also found the vertical wind shear mainly affects the eastern part of the Northwest Pacific typhoon activity.
文章引用: 余 晨 (2016) 西北太平洋10~12月台风活动的年代际突变。 气候变化研究快报， 5， 101-115. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2016.52014
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