西北太平洋10~12月台风活动的年代际突变
The Decadal Shift between October to December Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific

作者: 余 晨 :中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东 青岛 ;

关键词: 西北太平洋台风年代际突变Western North Pacific Typhoon Decadal Shift

摘要:
本文基于日本气象厅区域专业气象中心-东京台风中心(Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological Agency)的热带气旋资料和欧洲中尺度天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)的再分析资料,在前人的研究基础上,对西北太平洋10~12月期间台风活动对大尺度环境因子年代际突变的响应进行了讨论,并且通过台风数量和相关大尺度环境因素的分析,对其影响机制进行了比较详细的阐述。分析西北太平洋1980~2013年10~12月生成的台风,与1980~1994年相比,10~12月的台风数量在1995~2013年期间显著减少。分析发现热带气旋最大潜在强度的年代际变化是导致1995~2013年西北太平洋热带气旋潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Index, GPI)减少的最主要因素,1995年后西北太平洋SST异常场呈La Niña形态,导致热带气旋最大潜在强度(The Maximum Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity, MPI)增大,但在热带气旋的发展过程中过早受到西边界的影响使得增强为台风的热带气旋减少。突变后垂直风切变增强造成西北太平洋东南部的动力条件不利于台风生成,这都是造成台风突变减少的原因。分析还发现垂直风切变主要对西北太平洋东南部的台风活动造成影响。

Abstract: Based on the data sets of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological Agency and the reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this paper demonstrated the decadal shift between October to December (OND) typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980 to 2013, and discussed the response of the OND typhoon activity to decadal shift of the large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, by means of the analysis of typhoon activity and its relative large-scale environmental factors, it brought a detail exposition of its impact mechanisms. We analyzed that the WNP typhoon activity during October to December from 1980 to 2013, compared with that from 1980 to 1994, the typhoon activity during October to December among 1995 to 2013 decreased significantly. We discovered the main factor that led to the decrease of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index was the decadal shift of The Maximum Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity. The anomalous SST patterns appear to be a La Niña pattern, leading to the increasing of MPI. However, it early affected by the western boundary during tropical cyclones development process so that fewer tropical cyclones enhanced to be typhoon. After 1995, the vertical wind shear and subtropical high to be strengthener, resulting in the southeastern Pacific Northwest dynamic conditions are not conducive to typhoon genesis; all these are the reasons for the decadal shift of typhoon activity. We also found the vertical wind shear mainly affects the eastern part of the Northwest Pacific typhoon activity.

文章引用: 余 晨 (2016) 西北太平洋10~12月台风活动的年代际突变。 气候变化研究快报, 5, 101-115. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2016.52014

参考文献

[1] 丁一汇, 陈联寿. 西太平洋台风概论[M]. 北京: 科学出版杜, 1979: 1-105.

[2] Johnny, C.C. (2008) Decadal Var-iations of Intense Typhoon Occurrence in the Western North Pacific. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 464, 249-272.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.0183

[3] Satoru, Y. and Yukari, N.T. (2013) Attribution of Decadal Varia-bility in Tropical Cyclone Passage Frequency over the Western North Pacific: A New Approach Emphasizing the Ge-nesis Location of Cyclones. Journal of Climate, 26, 973-987.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00060.1

[4] Liu, K.S. and Chan, J.L. (2013) Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 1998-2011. Journal of Climate, 26.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00053.1

[5] Kin, S.L. and Johnny, C.C. (2008) Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Journal of Climate, 21, 4464-4476.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2207.1

[6] Jien, Y.T., Chia, C., Ping, H., et al. (2011) An Abrupt Increase of Intense Typhoons over the Western North Pacific in Early Summer. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 034013.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034013

[7] Du, Y., Yang, L. and Xie, S.P. (2011) Tropical Indian Ocean Influence on Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Summer Following Strong El Niño. Journal of Climate, 24.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3890.1

[8] Zhan, R.F., Wang, Y.Q. and Wu, C.C. (2011) Impact of SSTA in the East Indian Ocean on the Frequency of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study. Journal of Climate, 24.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-10-05014.1

[9] Wang, B. and Chan, J.C. (2002) How Strong ENSO Events Af-fect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15, 1643-1658.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2

[10] Jin, C.S., Ho, C.H., Kim, J.H., et al. (2013) Critical Role of Northern Off-Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Forcing Associated with Central Pacific El Niño in More Frequent Tropical Cyclone Movements toward East Asia. Journal of Climate, 26.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00287.1

[11] Xie, S.P., Hu, K., Hafner, J., et al. (2009) Indian Ocean Capa-citor Effect on Indo-Western Pacific Climate during the Summer Following El Niño. Journal of Climate, 22, 730-747.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1

[12] 冯涛, 黄荣辉, 陈光华, 等. 近年来关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2013, 37(2): 364-382.

[13] Hsu, P.C., Chu, P.S., Murakami, H, et al. (2014) An Abrupt Decrease in the Late-Season Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 27.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00417.1

[14] Zhao, X. and Chu, P.S. (2010) Bayesian Changepoint Analysis for Extreme Events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): An RJMCMC Approach. Journal of Climate, 23, 1034-1046.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2597.1

[15] Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 245-259.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907187

[16] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999.

[17] Maurice, G.K. (1975) Rank Correlation Methods.

[18] Mann, H.B. and Whitney, D.R. (1947) On a Test of Whether One of Two Random Variables Is Stochastically Larger than the Other. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 50-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730491

[19] Emanuel, K. and Nolan, D. (2004) Tropical Cyclones and the Global Climate System. 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Am Meteorology Soc.

[20] Takayabu, Y.N. (1993) 3-5 Day-Period Disturbances Coupled with Convection over the Tropical Pacific Ocean. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 71, 221-246.

[21] 许士斌. 1990年代末北印度洋及西北太平洋春季热带气旋活动的年代际突变[D]: [博士学位论文]. 青岛: 中国海洋大学气象系, 2014.

[22] Liu, K.S. and Chan, J.C. (2013) Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 1998-2011. Journal of Climate, 26, 2614-2630.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00053.1

分享
Top