Speculative Degree Measurement Research of the Real Estate Market—Taking Kunming as the Example
Abstract: Speculation is one of the key factors which impact price fluctuations. The real estate price is divided into the price when capital gains are zero and the speculative price in this paper, and speculative model is introduced to measure the degree of speculation. The empirical study taking Kunming as an example shows that the degree of speculation in the property market of Kunming is 0.3077, 0.2 greater than that the domestic and foreign academic circles generally believe. It is illustrated that there is serious speculation of real estate in Kunming. There is more risk if using interest rate to control the housing price, because the short-term loan rate has a negative impact which is lagging and the effect is not significant.
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