近64 a来哈密绿洲气候变化特征分析
Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Hami Oasis in Recent 64 Years

作者: 张 科 * , 苗运玲 :哈密地区气象局,哈密 新疆;

关键词: 哈密绿洲气候变化特征分析Hami Oasis Climate Change Characteristics Analysis

摘要:
利用哈密国家气象站1951~2014年气温和降水观测资料,运用线性回归、5a滑动平均等分析、Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法对哈密市64a来气温和降水的年际、季节变化及特征进行分析。分析结果表明:1)64a来哈密年平均气温总体呈现缓慢增加趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.12℃/10a,20世纪50年代至70年代气温逐渐降低,80~90年代气温维持在气候值,近14a气温明显升高。年内气温变化存在季节差异,冬、春两个季节气温呈上升趋势,夏、秋季的气温呈下降趋势,其中冬季气温对全年气温贡献最大。2)64a来哈密的年降水量呈增加趋势,年均降水量线性趋势率约为2.3mm/10a,50年代年降水量略有下降,60年代年降水量下降明显,70至80年代有所回升,在多年平均值附近,90年代以后降水开始增多,进入21世纪降水增加更加明显。四季降水均呈增加趋势,其中夏季对全年降水量贡献最大,其余各季增加幅度从大到小依次为春季、冬季、秋季。哈密在1987年发生显著性的增温突变,而降水为波动性的变化过程,未出现显著的突变年份。

Abstract: Based on the observational data of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2014 from the na-tional weather station of Hami, the inter-annual and seasonal variation and characteristics of temperature and precipitation in recent 64 years of Hami city are analyzed by using the analysis methods of linear regression, 5-year sliding average, and Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis, etc. The analysis results show that: 1) In recent 64 years, the average temperature in Hami reveals a general trend of slow increase, and the linear tendency of the annual average temperature is 0.12˚C/10 years. The temperature decreased gradually from 1950s to 1970s, and the temperature between 1980s and 1990s maintained at the climatic value, and the temperature increased ob-viously in recent 14 years. There were seasonal differences on variation of temperature within the year. The temperature in winter and spring showed an upward trend, while it showed an opposite tendency in summer and autumn, and winter air temperature contributed most to the whole year temperature. 2) In recent 64 years, the annual precipitation in Hami shows an increasing trend, and the liner tendency of the annual average precipitation is about 2.3 mm/10 years, and the annual precipitation in 1950s had a slight decrease, and it decreased obviously in 1960s and rose slightly from 1970s to 1980s maintaining around the average for previous years. The precipitation began to increase from 1990s and increased more obviously in the twenty-first century. The whole annual precipitation showed an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation in summer contributed most, and the increasing range of the rest seasons from large to small were spring, winter and autumn. In Hami, a significant change of temperature increase was demonstrated in 1987, whereas perception showed a trend of fluctuation, without any observation of sudden changes.

文章引用: 张 科 , 苗运玲 (2016) 近64 a来哈密绿洲气候变化特征分析。 气候变化研究快报, 5, 63-69. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2016.51009

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