﻿ 超高压直流输电系统可靠性预测方法

# 超高压直流输电系统可靠性预测方法A Reliability Prediction Method for HVDC Power Transmission Systems

Abstract: A mathematical model and engineering methods for the reliability prediction of HVDC power transmission systems are presented. The energy availability is used to evaluate HVDC power transmission system reliability, making use of the energy availability deducted scheduled outage hours from period hours and the maintenance factor to evaluate HVDC power transmission sys-tem inherent reliability, and a mathematical model for the maintenance factor is shown by the power function. Based on statistical historical reliability data of HVDC power transmission sys-tems, statistical values of the maintenance factor and undetermined parameters of the power function are determined. According to scheduled outage days, the outage derating factor and a mathematical model of the maintenance factor of HVDC power transmission systems, the energy availability of HVDC power transmission systems can be predicted in the next two years. The re-liability verification method for prediction results of HVDC power transmission systems is given, together with reliability prediction examples of three HVDC power transmission projects, such as Tianshengqiao to Guangzhou, Gaopo to Zhaoqing and Jiangling to Echeng HVDC power transmission projects. By using reliability the prediction method for HVDC power transmission systems, predictive values of the energy availability of HVDC power transmission systems can be determined in the next two years, which provide the basis for the reliability target management of HVDC power transmission systems.

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