Analysis of Inflow Floods of the Three Gorges Reservoir
Abstract: The runoff generation and confluence conditions at intervener basin have been changed after the com-pletion of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Since the reservoir inflow has higher peak with larger flood volume in the rising limb compared to the floods at dam site, the original designed flood results at dam site can no longer satisfy the current requirement of operation and management for TGR. In this paper, a multiple inputs and single output linear system model was built to calculate the historical reservoir inflow series and then linear regressions were used to determine the quantitative relations of flood peaks, 3 d, 7 d and 15 d flood volumes between inflow series and flood series at dam site. Subsequently, the simulated inflow series combined with historical floods were obtained and used for inflow frequency analysis. Comparing the inflow frequency analysis results with the existing design flood at dam site, the flood peaks and 3d, 7 d flood volumes are increased significantly, while the change of 15 d flood volume is not evident. It is shown that 100-year designed inflow peak discharge, 3 d, 7 d and 15 d inflow volumes are 7.89%, 5.49%, 2.52% and 0.31% larger than those of designed floods at dam site, respectively. Therefore, it’s more rational to take the designed inflow floods as scientific bases for TGR reservoir operation and management.
文章引用: 钟逸轩 , 郭生练 , 刘章君 , 郭海晋 , 李妍清 (2015) 三峡水库入库洪水分析计算研究。 水资源研究， 4， 330-338. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2015.44040
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