基于GM(1,1)模型的云南省能源消费预测研究
Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model
作者: 尹潇潇 :云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南 昆明;
关键词: GM(1; 1)模型; 能源消费; 预测; GM(1; 1) Model; Energy Consumption; Predictions
摘要:Abstract: Energy is essential to human survival, economic development and social progress. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, we establish GM(1,1) model and predict total energy consumption in Yunnan province using Matlab software. The results show that energy consumption in Yunnan Province continues to grow in the next six years. In addition, the model of high prediction accuracy can accurately predict the energy consumption. It provides an important basis for the Yunnan making scientific and rational energy consumption policy.
文章引用: 尹潇潇 (2015) 基于GM(1,1)模型的云南省能源消费预测研究。 自然科学, 3, 61-69. doi: 10.12677/OJNS.2015.33009
参考文献
[1] 韩君, 梁亚民 (2005) 趋势外推与ARMA组合的能源需求预测模型. 兰州商学院学报, 6, 92-95.
[2] 程静, 郑定成, 吴继权 (2010) 基于时间序列ARMA模型的广东省能源需求预测. 能源工程, 1, 1-5.
[3] 孙文生 (2011) 基于灰色理论与BP神经网络的煤炭需求预测. 科技传播, 15, 87-88.
[4] 王惠婷 (2013) 基于混合时间序列模型的粮食产量预测. 统计与决策, 12, 24.
[5] 李泉龙 (2015) 灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在南水北调施工进度预测中的应用. 黑龙江科技信息, 4, 74-75.
[6] 王慧蕾 (2015) 基于Matlab和GM(1,1)模型的预测方法应用实例. 现代计算机, 2, 44-47.
[7] 邓聚龙 (1988) 灰色预测与决策. 华中理工大学出版社, 武汉.
[8] 陈海涛 (2014) GM(1,1)模型预测我国石油需求量. 生态经济, 2, 127-130.
[9] 云南省统计局 (2011) 云南省统计年鉴——2011. 中国统计出版社, 北京.