Analysis and Forecast of Abnormal High Temperature in Jingdezhen City
Abstract: In this article, climate characteristic and weather pattern have been analyzed, and synoptic model is also induced. Main conclusions are as following: 1) An average level of 38˚C or above is 3.3 days per year and tops at 28. Totally, there are 23 years that abnormal high temperature days have never shown up, making up 37.7% of all the 61 years. A hot year occurs almost once every 9 to 10 years and most high temperature appears between July and September. 40˚C-above days are very rare, which happens once every 8 years. 2) Abnormal high temperature days are always consecu-tive. There are totally 45 processes of 2 consecutive hot days and 26 processes of 3 consecutive hot days, making up average days of 0.74 and 0.43 per year. Once every 10 years, there would be a 38˚C-above process lasting 5 days or more. 3) The weather pattern that induces abnormal high temperature usually shows as under the control of a strong subtropical anticyclone, while the rest could be divided as the north-west typhoon pattern, west typhoon pattern, north typhoon pattern and north-west stream pattern. 4) The synoptic model shows the areas of east China at the south of Hetao are controlled by strong subtropical anticyclone and there exists a warm center of 24˚C or above at the lower Yangtze River and north Hubei province on 850 hPa while Jingdezhen locates at 22˚C isotherm in the south of the center. Td > 16˚C area locates at the east Jiangxi and the border of Zhejiang and Fujian on 850 hPa while on 500hPa exists a dry tongue of T-Td > 20˚C at the north of Jiangxi and Zhejiang. This dry tongue locates at the southeast part of the low level warm center and Jingdezhen is right on the border of the dry tongue in the high level and the high Td area in the low level.
文章引用: 陈鲍发 , 余 欣 (2015) 景德镇市异常高温的分析与预报。 气候变化研究快报， 4， 142-153. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2015.43016
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