中国冬季极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系
The Relationship between Winter Extreme Minimum Temperature Events and Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice in China

作者: 胡蓓蓓 * , 晋 鹏 :海军南海舰队海洋水文气象中心,广东 湛江 ; 黄 菲 :中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室、山东省高校海洋–大气相互作用与气候重点实验室,山东 青岛 ;

关键词: 极端低温频数北极海冰海表面温度全球变暖EMT Frequency Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Sea Surface Temperature Global Warming

摘要: 本文利用站点资料和再分析资料分析中国冬季南、北方区域极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系。研究发现,中国南、北方区域极端低温频数下降趋势与全球变暖有关,极端低温频数的线性趋势与印度洋和北大西洋海温异常呈负相关,还与前期边缘海海冰特别是格陵兰–巴伦支海海冰异常呈正相关。对于北方区域,在年代际变化尺度上,极端低温事件偏多时,冬季北太平洋海温表现为北负南正的异常分布,格陵兰–巴伦支海海冰呈正异常。在年际变化尺度上,冬季北太平洋中部与北美西岸海域海温出现西负东正的异常分布,北美东岸海温表现为负异常,楚科奇海和新瓦尔巴群岛以北海区海冰呈负异常。对南方区域,在年代际变化尺度上,极端低温事件偏多与PDO冷位相有关,并与格陵兰海和白令海海冰异常呈正相关,其他海区海冰异常呈负相关。在年际变化尺度上,前期阿拉斯加湾和白令海海区异常偏冷,对应着冬季南方区域极端低温事件偏多,另外还与冬季太平洋扇区海冰异常存在显著负相关关系。

Abstract: Based on the dataset of daily minimum temperature in China during 1961-2010 and reanalysis data, the relationship between winter extreme minimum temperature (EMT) frequency and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice is analyzed. Research shows that, the decline of EMT fre-quency both in the north and south of China is associated with global warming. The linear trend has a negative correlation with the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and India Ocean, and can be preceded by melting of the marginal sea ice, especially in the Greenland-Barents Sea ice during the preceding summer and autumn. For the north of China, its inter-decadal (ID) component may be affected by North Pacific SST anomalies which has a north-negative and south-positive distribution, and has a positive correlation with Greenland-Barents sea ice. While inter-annual (IA) component has a significant negative correlation with the SST anomalies along the east coast of North American and the anomalous SST between the subtropical North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska represents a distribution of the dipole oscillation. And it is also affected by the sea ice melting in Chukchi Sea and Sea area in the north of Svalbard. On the other hand, for the south of China, its ID component is remarkable influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It also has a negative correlation with the marginal sea ice except the Greenland Sea and the Bering Sea. Beyond the IA time scale, the SST anomalies over the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska prelude the anomalous winter EMT in the south of China. In addition, it also has a significant negative correlation with Pacific sector sea ice.

文章引用: 胡蓓蓓 , 黄 菲 , 晋 鹏 (2015) 中国冬季极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系。 气候变化研究快报, 4, 130-141. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2015.43015

参考文献

[1] 秦玉琳 (2012) 中国东北夏季极端气温变化特征及其与大气环流的关系. 硕士论文, 南京信息工程大学, 南京.

[2] 陈磊 (2011) 近50年我国极端低温事件的特征及其成因的初步研究. 硕士论文, 兰州大学, 兰州.

[3] 刘蕾 (2011) 中国冬季极端低温发生频次与瞬变波活动的可能联系. 硕士论文, 南京信息工程大学, 南京.

[4] Hoskins, B. and Pearce, R. (1983) Large-scale dynamical processes in the atmosphere. Academic Press, London, 111- 112.

[5] 刘长健, 杜岩, 张庆荣, 陈特固, 王东晓 (2007) 海洋对全球变暖的响应及南海观测证据. 气候变化研究进展, 1, 8-13.

[6] 陈佩燕, 倪允琪, 殷永红 (2001) 近50年来全球海温异常对我国东部地区冬季温度异常影响的诊断研究. 热带气象学报, 4, 371-380.

[7] 康丽华, 陈文, 王林, 陈丽娟 (2009) 我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系. 气候与环境研究, 1, 45-53.

[8] 严厉, 王盘兴, 管兆勇, 杨晓苑 (2008) 大洋间海表温度遥联与中国冬季气温的关系. 气象科学, 2, 133-138.

[9] 赵永平, 陈永利, 张必成, 杨连素 (1989) ENSO事件对中国南方冬春季气温的影响. 热带气象, 4, 358-363.

[10] 许武成, 马劲松, 王文 (2005) 关于ENSO事件及其对中国气候影响研究的综述. 气象科学, 2, 212-220.

[11] 黄士松, 杨修群, 蒋全荣, 汤明敏, 王召民, 谢倩, 朱永春 (1995) 极地海冰变化对气候的影响. 气象科学, 4, 46- 56.

[12] 高登义, 武炳义 (1998) 北半球海-冰-气系统的十年振荡及其振源初探. 大气科学, 2,137-144.

[13] 武炳义, 黄荣辉, 高登义 (1999) 冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响. 大气科学, 3, 267-275.

[14] 解小寒, 杨修群 (2006) 冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际变化. 南京大学学报, 6, 549-561.

[15] 高清清, 孙照渤, 倪东鸿 (2011) 冬季北极海冰与中国同期气温的关系. 气象与减灾研究, 4, 7-15.

[16] 黄菲, 高聪辉 (2012) 东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系. 中国海洋大学学报, 9, 7- 14.

[17] 黄菲, 胡蓓蓓, 周晓, 房永生 (2014) 中国冬季极端低温事件的多尺度特征. 中国海洋大学学报, 10, 42-50.

[18] 施能, 陈家其 (1995) 中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征. 气象学报, 4, 431-439.

[19] Manton, M.J. Della-Marta, P.M., Haylock, M.R., Hennessy, K.J., Nicholls, N., Chambers, L.E., et al. (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the south Pacific: 1961-1998. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 269-284.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1002/joc.610

[20] Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M. and Francis, R.C. (1997) A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 1069-1079.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

[21] 朱益民, 杨修群 (2003) 太平洋年代际振荡与中国气候变率的联系. 气象学报, 6, 641-654.

[22] Kruger, A.C. (2006) Observed trends in daily precipitation indices in South Africa: 1910-2004. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 2275-2285.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1002/joc.1368

[23] Aguilar, E. Aziz Barry, A., Brunet, M., Ekang, L., Fernandes, A., et al. (2009) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D02115.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1029/2008jd011010

[24] Alexander, L.V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T.C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A.M.G., et al. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1029/2005JD006290

[25] Vincent, L.A., Aguilar, E., Saindou, M., Hassane, A.F., Jumaux, G., Roy, D., Booneeady, P., et al. (2011) Observed trends in indices of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation for the countries of the western Indian Ocean, 1961-2008. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D10108.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1029/2010JD015303

[26] Griffiths, G.M., Chambers, L.E., Haylock, M.R., Manton, M.J., Nicholls, N., et al. (2005) Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1301-1330.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1002/joc.1194

[27] Aguilar, E., Peterson, T.C., Obando, P.R., Frutos, R., Retana, J.A., et al. (2005) Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003. Journal of Geo-physical Research, 110, D23107.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1029/2005jd006119

[28] Caesar, J., Alexander, L.V., Trewin, B., Tse-Ring, K., Sorany, L., Vuniyayawa, V., et al. (2011) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 791-801.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1002/joc.2118

[29] 张霏燕, 徐海明 (2011) 东北春季极端低温的变化特征及其与大西洋海温的关系. 大气科学学报, 5, 574-582.

[30] Wen, C., Graf, H.F. and Huang, R.H. (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 17, 48-60.
http://dx.doi.org /10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5

[31] 李尚峰 (2012) 东北夏季低温事件的大气环流特征及其物理机制的初步研究. 硕士论文, 吉林大学, 长春.

分享
Top