基于ECHAM5的21世纪北极涛动的变化特征
Variability of the AO in the 21st Century by ECHAM5 Model
作者: 文 萍 :中国海洋大学,山东 青岛;
关键词: 北极涛动; ECHAM5; RCPs; 冬季气温; The Arctic Oscillation; ECHAM5; RCPs; Winter Temperatures
摘要:Abstract: Based on the ECHAM5 output results of the earth’s numerical simulation system by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, we study the variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the three scena-rios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) in the 21st century. The results show that both the positive intensity in North Atlantic and the variance contribution in RCP4.5 are much larger than that in the other scenarios. In RCP8.5, the negative center divides into two areas, which are in the eastern and the western hemispheres separately. Meanwhile, we analyze the winter temperatures in Northwest China and the winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) de-composition, power spectrum and Cross spectrum. The results show that: the Arctic Oscillation Index has obvious decadal changes. Besides, winter temperatures and the Arctic Oscillation Index have a consistent increase (decrease) trend.
文章引用: 文 萍 (2015) 基于ECHAM5的21世纪北极涛动的变化特征。 气候变化研究快报, 4, 91-97. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2015.43011
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