Analysis of Rainfall Extreme in Han River Basin Based on PDS/GP Model
Abstract: The monthly rainfall of 15 meteorological stations in Han River basin from 1961 to 2010 was taken as case study. Two methods of mean residual life and change of parameters were combined to determine the proper thresholds for each data series, and the fit residuals method was adopted to reduce the uncertainty during the process. Partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum (AM) series were obtained and fitted by General Pareto (GP) and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions, respectively. The PDS/GP and AM/PIII models were constructed and used to analyze rainfall extreme variations and predict rainfall quantiles with 20a, 50a, 100a and 200a return periods for each station. The results and comparison indicated that the estimates supplied by AM/PIII model were mostly lager than that of PDS/GP model, while the differences were not so much significant because of the temporal and spatial variations of the monthly rainfall extremes.
文章引用: 李 丹 , 郭生练 , 洪兴骏 (2015) 基于PDS/GP模型分析汉江流域降雨极值特征。 水资源研究， 4， 109-118. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2015.42014
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