Designing Flood Hydrograph of the Weihe River Considering Nonstationarity
Abstract: Under changing environments, the flood series of the Weihe River have been influenced by climate change and human activities. In this paper, four flood series including the annual maxima daily discharge, 3-day flood volume, 5-day flood volume and 7-day flood volume of the Weihe River are chosen in the derivation of design flood hydrographs. The time-varying moments model based on Pearson type III distribution is applied to investigate the trends of the flood series, and then both the antecedent precipitation and the water-soil conservation land area are introduced as the explanatory variables of the distribution parameters of the flood series. It is found that all the four flood series present obvious decreasing trends. Both the antecedent precipitation and the water-soil conservation land area are significant covariates of the flood series, and it is mainly the increase in the water-soil conservation land area that has led to the decreasing trend of the flood series. Also by using the time-varying moments model based on Pearson type III distribution, frequency analysis is performed for each time period of flood series with the change-point identified by Pettitt method. The results indicate that all flood series have a downward change-point in 1985. Finally, the design flood hydrographs with the return periods of 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years before and after the change-point are derived. As a result of nonstationarity, the volume of the design flood for a given return period after the change-point is far less than that before the change-point, and the design flood hydrograph also becomes much flatter.
文章引用: 熊立华 , 江 聪 (2015) 考虑非一致性的渭河流域设计洪水过程线研究。 水资源研究， 4， 119-129. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2015.42013
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