基于组合预测模型的云南省能源消费预测研究
Study on Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on Combined Prediction Model
作者: 尹潇潇 ：云南财经大学统计与数学学院，云南 昆明;
关键词: 单一预测模型； 组合预测模型； 能源消费； 预测； Single Prediction Model； Combined Prediction Model； Energy Consumption； Predictions
摘要:Abstract: There is a strong relationship between energy and economic development of China, the protection of human health and the environment. It is essential to accurately predict energy consumption. This can provide a scientific basis for decision-making about energy work. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, on the basis of the three single prediction model, we establish combined prediction model to make energy predictions in Yunnan Province by non- optimal weighted linear combination model and minimum sum of square error of objective func- tion for optimal weight linear combination model. The prediction results of these models are ana- lyzed and compared. The results show that combined prediction model is performed better. This indicates that the combined prediction model is an useful theoretical tool for energy prediction in Yunnan Province.
文章引用: 尹潇潇 (2014) 基于组合预测模型的云南省能源消费预测研究。 低碳经济， 3， 38-45. doi: 10.12677/JLCE.2014.34005
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