北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析
The Disequilibrium Model of Supply and Demand Status of Beijing Commercial Housing Market

作者: 高 帅 , 张 红 :清华大学,建设管理系,北京;

关键词: 商品住房市场有效需求有效供给非均衡模型非线性最小二乘法非均衡度Commercial Housing Market Effective Demand Effective Supply Disequilibrium Model The Nonlinear Least Square Method Disequlibrium Degree

摘要:
本文在分析北京市商品住房市场供求非均衡现状引起房价的持续上涨的基础上,构建了房地产供求的非均衡对数计量经济模型,得出了商品住房供求受人均可支配收入、商品住房价格、人们的预期、房地产成本、城市规模等因素影响的结论。进一步采用1994~2011年的相关商品住房统计数据进行实证分析,计算出了历年北京市商品住房市场有效供求的非均衡度,发现非均衡度可以灵敏的反映出北京市房地产市场有效供求关系的波动状态,并分三个阶段对非均衡度给予了现实的解释。最后,对北京商品住房市场向瓦尔拉斯均衡逼近,提出了相应的政策建议,可作为政府宏观调控的参考依据。

Abstract: This paper constructed the econometric model of demand and supply disequilibrium logarithm based on the analysis of sustained increases in housing prices caused by the unbalanced supply and demand situation in Beijing commercial housing market. The demand and supply of commercial housing were affected by per capital disposable income, commercial housing price, people’s expectations and the cost of housing, city scale etc. It is further carried out by the empirical re-search with 1994~2012 statistical data. Meanwhile, the disequilibrium degree index of the effective demand and supply of commodity housing that can reflect the undulation actual situation of Beijing commercial housing was calculated. Besides, this paper gave a realistic interpretation for the disequilibrium degree from three stages. Finally, it gave the corresponding policy recommen-dations about approximate approach to Watras equilibrium as reference for the government ma-croeconomic regulation and control.

文章引用: 高 帅 , 张 红 (2014) 北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析。 管理科学与工程, 3, 116-126. doi: 10.12677/MSE.2014.34015

参考文献

[1] Charemza, W. and Quandt, R.E. (1982) Models and estimation of disequilibrium for centrally planned economics. The Review of Economic Studies, 49, 109-116.

[2] 张世英, 李忠民 (2002) 非均衡经济计量建模与控制. 天津大学出版社, 天津.

[3] 戚桂杰, 李雪禄, 王乃静 (2002) 非均衡多市场的数量–价格调节分析. 数量经济技术经济研究, 5, 29-32.

[4] Fortura, P. and Kushner, J. (1986) Canadian intercity house price differentials. Journal of the Amer-ican Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 14, 525-536.

[5] Geoffrey, M. and Mark, A. (2000) Modeling regional house price: A review of the literature. The Center for Spatial and Real Estate Department of Economics, The University of Reading, Berkshire.

[6] 李子奈 (2010) 计量经济学. 高等教育出版社, 北京.

[7] 季朗超 (2005) 非均衡的房地产市场. 经济管理出版社, 北京.

[8] 王松华 (2009) 我国住房保障体系非均衡供给的实证分析. 经济问题, 4.

[9] 王雪坤, 邓述慧 (1997) 对中国货币需求与货币供给的非均衡分析. 系统工程理论与实践, 9, 9-14.

[10] 王金明, 高铁梅 (2004) 房地产市场需求和供给函数的动态分析. 中国软科学, 4.

分享
Top