The Optimization of Export Geographic Concentration of China’s Corn
作者: 蔡一鸣 ：华南师范大学经济与管理学院，广州;
Abstract: Taking stabilizing exports as a goal, in order to optimize export geographic concentration, we should consider volatility risk in each export market. The method of Mean-variance of Markowitz provides a solution for this problem. Since 2005, export volume of China’s corn has showed a falling tendency and obvious volatility. This paper learns from Markowitz model and then constructs an export market mix model available to stabilize export growth rate. According to this model and the data on China’s export between 2005 and 2011, we calculated the effective mixes of China's corn export markets and further obtained the varied geographic concentration corresponding to different expected growth rates of exports. The policy makers will select the optimal geographic concentration in the light of their attitude towards risk.
文章引用: 蔡一鸣 (2014) 中国玉米出口地理集中度的优化。 世界经济探索， 3， 41-48. doi: 10.12677/WER.2014.34006
 李蔚青 (2006) 加入WTO以来中国玉米对外贸易及未来趋势展望. 世界农业, 12, 1-4.
 Samen, S. (2010) A primer on export diversification: Key concepts, theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence. Growth and Crisis Unit World Bank Institute Working Papers.
 Adams, F.G. and Behrman, J.R. (1982) Commodity exports and economic development. Econometric Studies, 28, 23- 45.
 刘靖, 毛学峰, 辛贤 (2006) 我国农产品出口不稳定性成因的初步探析. 中国农村观察, 1, 2-10.
 Love, J. (1987) Export instability in less developed countries: Consequences and causes. Journal of Economic Studies, 14, 3-80.
 Piya, S., Kiminami, A. and Yagi, H. (2010) Evaluating the impact of geographic concentration on Nepalese agricultural export. South Asia Economic Journal, 11, 207-222.
 程国强 (2004) 中国农产品出口：增长、结构与贡献. 管理世界, 11, 85-95.
 魏浩, 马野青 (2006) 中国出口商品的地区结构分析. 世界经济, 5, 22-31.
 Hirsch, S. and Lev, B. (1971) Stabilization through export diversification. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53, 270-277.
 Board, J., Sinclair, T. and Sutcliffe, C. (1987) A portfolio approach to regional tourism. Built Environment, 13, 24-137.
 Board, J. and Sutcliffe, C. (1991) Risk and income tradeoffs in regional policy: A portfolio theoretic approach. Journal of Regional Science, 31, 191-210.
 Kennedy, V. (1998) Risk management in the Irish tourism industry: The contribution of a portfolio investment approach. Tourism Management, 2, 119-126.
 Jang, S. and Chen, M.-H. (2008) Financial portfolio approach to optimal tourist market mixes. Tourism Management, 29, 761-770.
 Markowitz, H.M. (1952) Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7, 77-91.
 Markowitz, H.M. (1959) Portfolio selection: Efficient diversification of investments. Wiley, New York.
 蔡一鸣 (2014) 马科维茨模型、相对方差与出口地理集中度. 东北师大学报(社科版), 4, 90-94.
 贾军平, 何晓群, 金勇进 (2000) 统计学. 中国人民大学出版社, 北京.