The Water Level Forecast Research of a
Typical Glacier Lake in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Distributed Hydrological Model
Abstract: The glacial lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are important water resources for the local residents. However, there is a great potential of safety hazard. Affected by the climate change in recent years, more and more glacier lakes turn into dangerous situations. And for the moraine lake, which is the most likely to burst, the majority of disasters are caused by overtopping. Therefore, the monitoring and the analysis of moraine lake water level have great significance. Physical based distributed hydrological model InHM which has added the glacial ablation part was first used in mountain glacial basin. The typical dangerous glacial lake—Huanghu located in the end of Glacier Shimo, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected as the study area for this paper and its glacier runoff and lake level change process were simulated. The simulation data were derived from DEM of 30 m accuracy and hydro-meteorological data of 2010-2013 including temperature, rainfall and the variation of lake level. The simulation results were estimated using 2013 lake hydrograph and the Nash efficiency coefficient is 0.85. Results show that the InHM can obtain good simulation results in data lacking Himalayan glaciers and can be helpful in the moraine dam failure prevention.
文章引用: 王 丰 , 唐鸿磊 , 冉启华 , 肖长伟 , 黄志鹏 (2014) 基于分布式水文模型的青藏高原典型冰湖水位预报研究。 水资源研究， 3， 369-377. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.35045
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