基于分布式水文模型的青藏高原典型冰湖水位预报研究
The Water Level Forecast Research of a Typical Glacier Lake in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Distributed Hydrological Model

青藏高原的冰湖既是当地重要的水资源，同时也存在着重大的安全隐患。近年来受气候变化的影响，越来越多的冰湖进入了溃决危险状态。对于其中最易发生溃决的冰碛湖，漫顶型溃决占了灾害的大多数。因此，对冰碛湖的湖水位进行监测与分析有重大的意义。本文在基于物理机制的分布式水文模型InHM模型中加入冰川消融模块，首次将其应用于高山冰川流域，以什磨冰川末端的青藏高原典型危险冰湖黄湖为研究对象，模拟了其流域的冰川径流及湖水位变化过程。模拟的数据来源于30 m精度的DEM数据和2010~2013年的水文气象数据，包括气温、降水和水位变化。模型的模拟结果通过与观测得到的2013年湖面水位曲线进行评估，模拟结果纳什效率系数为0.85。结果显示InHM模型能在观测数据相对缺乏的喜马拉雅冰川取得较好的模拟结果，同时可以为下游的冰碛湖的溃坝预防提供帮助。

Abstract: The glacial lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are important water resources for the local residents. However, there is a great potential of safety hazard. Affected by the climate change in recent years, more and more glacier lakes turn into dangerous situations. And for the moraine lake, which is the most likely to burst, the majority of disasters are caused by overtopping. Therefore, the monitoring and the analysis of moraine lake water level have great significance. Physical based distributed hydrological model InHM which has added the glacial ablation part was first used in mountain glacial basin. The typical dangerous glacial lake—Huanghu located in the end of Glacier Shimo, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected as the study area for this paper and its glacier runoff and lake level change process were simulated. The simulation data were derived from DEM of 30 m accuracy and hydro-meteorological data of 2010-2013 including temperature, rainfall and the variation of lake level. The simulation results were estimated using 2013 lake hydrograph and the Nash efficiency coefficient is 0.85. Results show that the InHM can obtain good simulation results in data lacking Himalayan glaciers and can be helpful in the moraine dam failure prevention.

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