The Water Level Forecast Research of a Typical Glacier Lake in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Distributed Hydrological Model

作者: 王 丰 , 唐鸿磊 , 冉启华 :浙江大学水利工程学系,杭州; 肖长伟 , 黄志鹏 :西藏自治区水利电力规划勘测设计研究院,拉萨;

关键词: 冰湖冰川径流水位预报数值模拟Glacial Lake Glacial Runoff Water Level Forecast Numerical Simulation

青藏高原的冰湖既是当地重要的水资源,同时也存在着重大的安全隐患。近年来受气候变化的影响,越来越多的冰湖进入了溃决危险状态。对于其中最易发生溃决的冰碛湖,漫顶型溃决占了灾害的大多数。因此,对冰碛湖的湖水位进行监测与分析有重大的意义。本文在基于物理机制的分布式水文模型InHM模型中加入冰川消融模块,首次将其应用于高山冰川流域,以什磨冰川末端的青藏高原典型危险冰湖黄湖为研究对象,模拟了其流域的冰川径流及湖水位变化过程。模拟的数据来源于30 m精度的DEM数据和2010~2013年的水文气象数据,包括气温、降水和水位变化。模型的模拟结果通过与观测得到的2013年湖面水位曲线进行评估,模拟结果纳什效率系数为0.85。结果显示InHM模型能在观测数据相对缺乏的喜马拉雅冰川取得较好的模拟结果,同时可以为下游的冰碛湖的溃坝预防提供帮助。

Abstract: The glacial lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are important water resources for the local residents. However, there is a great potential of safety hazard. Affected by the climate change in recent years, more and more glacier lakes turn into dangerous situations. And for the moraine lake, which is the most likely to burst, the majority of disasters are caused by overtopping. Therefore, the monitoring and the analysis of moraine lake water level have great significance. Physical based distributed hydrological model InHM which has added the glacial ablation part was first used in mountain glacial basin. The typical dangerous glacial lake—Huanghu located in the end of Glacier Shimo, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected as the study area for this paper and its glacier runoff and lake level change process were simulated. The simulation data were derived from DEM of 30 m accuracy and hydro-meteorological data of 2010-2013 including temperature, rainfall and the variation of lake level. The simulation results were estimated using 2013 lake hydrograph and the Nash efficiency coefficient is 0.85. Results show that the InHM can obtain good simulation results in data lacking Himalayan glaciers and can be helpful in the moraine dam failure prevention.

文章引用: 王 丰 , 唐鸿磊 , 冉启华 , 肖长伟 , 黄志鹏 (2014) 基于分布式水文模型的青藏高原典型冰湖水位预报研究。 水资源研究, 3, 369-377. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.35045


[1] 舒有锋. 西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰碛湖溃决危险性评价及其演进数值模拟[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2011. SHU Youfeng. Hazard assessment of moraine-dammed lake outbursts in the Himalayas, Tibet and the propagating numerical simulation. Changchun: Jilin University, 2011. (in Chinese)

[2] 刘晶晶, 程尊兰, 李泳等. 西藏冰湖溃决主要特征[J]. 灾害学, 2008, 23(1): 55-60. LIU Jingjing, CHENG Zunlan, LI Yong, et al. Characteristics of glacier-lake breaks in Tibet. Journal of Catastrophology, 2008, 23(1): 55-60. (in Chinese)

[3] 刘伟刚, 任贾文, 刘景时等. 喜马拉雅山珠峰绒布冰川流域径流模拟[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1449-1459. LIU Weigang, REN Jiawen, LIU Jingshi, et al. Runoff simulation of the Rongbuk watershed around the Mt. Qomo-langma, central Himalaya, using HYCYMODEL. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6): 1449-1459. (in Chinese)

[4] 陈仁升, 刘时银, 康尔泗等. 冰川流域径流估算方法探索——以科其喀尔巴西冰川为例[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(9): 942-951. CHEN Rensheng, LIU Shiyin, KANG Ersi, et al. Daily glacier runoff estimation methods—A case study of Koxkar Glacier. Advances in Earth Science, 2008, 23(9): 942-951. (in Chinese)

[5] BERGSTRÖM, S. (1976) Development and application of a conceptual runoff model for Scandinavian catchments. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.

[6] UHLMANN, B., JORDAN, F. and BENISTON, M. Modelling runoff in a Swiss glacie-rized catchment—Part I: Methodology and application in the Findelen basin under a long-lasting stable climate. Inter-national Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(5): 1293-1300.

[7] TAHIR, A. A., CHEVALLIER, P., ARNAUD, Y., et al. Modeling snowmelt-runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 409(1-2): 104-117.

[8] KOBOLTSCHNIG, G. R., SCHONER, W., ZAPPA, M., et al. Runoff modelling of the glacierized Alpine Upper Salzachbasin (Austria): Multi-criteria result validation. Hydrological Processes, 2008, 22(19): 3950-3964.

[9] KONZ, M., UHLENBROOK, S., BRAUN, L., et al. Implementation of a process-based catchment model in a poorly gauged, highly glacierized Himalayan headwater. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2007, 11(4): 1323-1339.

[10] VERBUNT, M., GURTZ, J., JASPER, K., et al. The hydrological role of snow and glaciers in alpine river basins and their distributed modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 282(1-4): 36-55.

[11] 卿文武, 陈仁升, 刘时银. 冰川水文模型研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2008, 19(6): 893-902. QING Wenwu, CHEN Rensheng and LIU Shiyin. Progress in study of hydrological model. Advances in Water Science, 2008, 19(6): 893-902. (in Chinese)

[12] 张小咏, 刘耕年, 鞠远江, 傅海荣. 冰川径流模型研究进展[J]. 水土保持研究, 2005, 12(4): 58-62. ZHANG Xiaoyong, LIU Gengnian, JU Yuanjiang and FU Hairong. A review of the hydrological model in the glacie-rized drainage basin. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2005, 12(4): 58-62. (in Chinese)

[13] 李传富, 苏治华, 张玉初. 西藏高原冰湖的保护与开发[J]. 中国水土保持, 2007, (11): 15-16. LI Chuanfu, SU Zhihua and ZHANG Yuchu. The protection and development of glacier-lake in Tibet. Soil and Water Conservation in China, 2007, (11): 15-16. (in Chinese)

[14] RAN, Q. H., LOAGUE, K. and VANDERKWAAK, J. E. Hydrologic-response-driven sediment transport at a regional scale, process-based simulation. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(2): 159-167.

[15] BEVEN, K.J., KIRKBY, M.J. A physically-based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1979, 24(1): 43-69.

[16] DHI. MIKE SHE flow modules manual. Hørsholm: Danish Hydraulic Institute, 2003.

[17] HEPPNER, C. S., RAN, Q., VANDERKWAAK, J. E. and LOAGUE, K. Adding sediment transport to the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM): Development and testing. Advances in Water Resources, 2006, 29(6): 930-943.

[18] LOAGUE, K., VANDERKWAAK, J. E. Simulating hydrological response for the R-5 catchment: Comparison of two models and the impact of the roads. Hydrological Processes, 2002, 16(5): 1015-1032.

[19] VANDERKWAAK, J. E., LOAGUE, K. Hydrologic-response simulations for the R-5 catchment with a comprehensive physics-based model. Water Resources Research, 2001, 37(4): 999-1013.

[20] LOAGUE, K., HEPPNER, C. S., ABRAMS, R. H., CARR, A. E., VANDERKWAAK, J. E. and EBEL, B. A. Further testing of the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM): Event-based simulations for a small rangeland catchment located near Chickasha, Oklahoma. Hydrological Processes, 2005, 19(7): 1373-1398.

[21] EBEL, B. A., LOAGUE, K. Rapid simulated hydrologic response within the variably saturated near surface. Hydrological Processes, 2008, 22(3): 464-471.

[22] EBEL, B. A., LOAGUE, K., MONTGOMERY, D. R. and DIETRICH, W. E. Physics-based continuous simulation of long-term near-surface hydrologic response for the Coos Bay experimental catchment. Water Resources Research, 2008, 44(7): W07417.

[23] MIRUS, B. B., LOAGUE, K., VANDERKWAAK, J. E., KAMPF, S. K. and BURGES, S. J. A hypothetical reality of Tarrawarra-like hydrologic response. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23(7): 1093-1103.

[24] RAN, Q. Regional scale landscape evolution: Physics-based simulation of hydrologically-driven surface erosion. Stanford: Stanford University Geological and Environmental Science, 2006.

[25] EBEL, B. A., MIRUS, B. B., HEPPNER, C. S., et al. First-order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water-groundwater interactions: Parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics-based approach. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23(13): 1949-1959.

[26] HEPPNER, C. S., LOAGUE, K. A dam problem: Simulated upstream impacts for a Searsville-like watershed. Ecohydrology, 2008, 1(4): 408-424.

[27] HOCK, R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 282(1-4): 104-115.

[28] NASH, J. E., SUTCLIFFE, J. V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models, part I: A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 1970, 10(3): 282-290.