Threshold Autoregressive Model in Rainfall Forecasting—A Case Study in Yiwu
Abstract: The meteorological elements are not only combined effected by the impact factors, but also their own evolution. Multivariate analysis ignores the evolution of meteorological elements themselves, and the time-series analysis did not take full advantage of the implicit information about the impact factor. This article uses threshold autoregressive model by piecewise linearization method of nonlinear problem to deal with the meteorological elements, both considering influence factors of superimposition, and balancing the evolution law of meteorological elements themselves; the fitting and forecasting effect is relatively good. But now the time sequence of the meteorological elements is generally short, usually around 40 to 60 years, which belongs to the incomplete information system, the extrapolation value should not be too long. It would be best to gradually replenish the new information in a timely manner to improve the fitting and forecasting results.
文章引用: 朱灵子 , 冯利华 , 黄 琼 (2014) 门限自回归模型在降水量预报中的应用——以中国义乌市为例。 水资源研究， 3， 337-343. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.34041
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