﻿ 基于可用水量预测的梯级水电站水库调度函数

# 基于可用水量预测的梯级水电站水库调度函数Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Rules Based on Predicted Available Water

Abstract: The traditional operation function for cascaded reservoirs takes available water as the state variable. However, poor simulation results may be caused by estimation errors when using predicted inflow. For this reason, with predicted available water considered as the state variable, an operation function and an optimization model are proposed in this paper. In this operation function, the predicted value equals existing storage in the current stage plus local inflow forecasted by seasonal ARIMA model, and the parameters are obtained by multiple regression method. The proposed optimization model aims to maximize annual average generating capacity with consideration of system reliability and extreme failure. A case study of Lancang River cascaded reservoirs shows that the proposed operation function can effectively consider the uncertainty of forecasted run-off and obtain a better solution than the traditional one.

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